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The portfolio theory of inflation (and policy effectiveness)

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  • Bossone, Biagio

Abstract

The Portfolio Theory of Inflation (PIT) proposed in this study investigates the role of global financial markets in determining the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy in open and fully financial integrated economies. The PIT adopts a modified version of the portfolio balance approach to exchange rate determination and incorporates intertemporal optimal choices from global investors. These investors allocate resources across national economies based on local investment opportunities and policy credibility: when a country's credibility is low, they hold its economy to a tighter intertemporal budget constraint and the issuance of what they deem as "excess" public sector liabilities causes the country's currency to depreciate and inflation to rise due to a large exchange rate pass-through, with limited or no impact on output. On the other hand, high credibility creates space for effective and noninflationary macro policies but, if such space is abused, credibility gets dissipated and higher inflation reflects such dissipation.

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  • Bossone, Biagio, 2019. "The portfolio theory of inflation (and policy effectiveness)," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201929
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Biagio Bossone, 2021. "Exercising Economic Sovereignty in Today's Global Financial World: The Lessons from John Maynard Keynes," Working Papers PKWP2120, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    2. Biagio Bossone, 2020. "Why MMT can’t work: A Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers PKWP2020, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    3. Biagio Bossone, 2021. "Why MMT can’t work," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 157-181, February.
    4. Vukovic, Darko B. & Maiti, Moinak & Frömmel, Michael, 2022. "Inflation and portfolio selection," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    5. Biagio Bossone, 2021. "Global Capital, the Exchange Rate, and Policy (In)Effectiveness," Working Papers PKWP2113, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    6. Biagio Bossone, 2024. "Keynesian Policy Space in "Globalized" Economies," Working Papers PKWP2405, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    7. Bossone, Biagio & Cuccia, Andrea, 2020. "The portfolio theory of inflation and policy (in)effectiveness revisited: Corroborating evidence," Economics Discussion Papers 2020-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credibility; exchange rate; financial integration; global investor; interest rate; intertemporal budget constraint; money; bonds and assets; pass-through;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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