IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/scotjp/v55y2008i1p79-106.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Public Debt Maturity And Currency Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Levine
  • Alex Mandilaras
  • Jun Wang

Abstract

The theory underlying the effect of debt structure on the probability of a currency crisis and the slope of the yield curve was developed in Benigno and Missale (2004). In this paper, we provide the empirical evidence to support their model's predictions. In a dynamic panel data framework, we produce generalized method of moments estimates that give substantial support to the hypothesis that the role of short‐term debt depends on how a devaluation affects the reputation of the policymaker and the real value of public debt. In addition to the empirical analysis, we generalize the theoretical framework to allow for the presence of non‐deflatable debt and, for completeness, examine the case where the monetary authority can fully commit itself to an escape clause monetary rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Levine & Alex Mandilaras & Jun Wang, 2008. "Public Debt Maturity And Currency Crises," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(1), pages 79-106, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:55:y:2008:i:1:p:79-106
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9485.2008.00444.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.2008.00444.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-9485.2008.00444.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Missale, Alessandro, 2004. "High public debt in currency crises: fundamentals versus signaling effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 165-188, March.
    2. Allan Drazen & Paul R. Masson, 1994. "Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 735-754.
    3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1997. "Destabilizing effects of exchange-rate escape clauses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 61-77, August.
    4. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1985. "Inflation and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 530-538, June.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    7. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    8. David Backus & John Driffill, 1985. "Rational Expectations and Policy Credibility Following a Change in Regime," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(2), pages 211-221.
    9. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    10. Velasco, Andres, 1996. "Fixed exchange rates: Credibility, flexibility and multiplicity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1023-1035, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Larissa Batrancea, 2020. "The Influence of Public Debt on Performance: Lesson from Romanian Counties," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 809-814, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Missale, Alessandro, 2004. "High public debt in currency crises: fundamentals versus signaling effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 165-188, March.
    2. Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger & Benedikt Goderis, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates during Currency Crises: the Role of Debt, Institutions, and Financial Openness," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 559-575, August.
    3. Carlson, John A. & Valev, Neven T., 2001. "Credibility of a new monetary regime: The currency board in Bulgaria," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 581-594, June.
    4. Peter Tillmann, 2003. "The Regime‐Dependent Determination of Credibility: A New Look at European Interest Rate Differentials," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(4), pages 409-431, November.
    5. Neven Valev & John Carlson, 2007. "Beliefs about Exchange‐Rate Stability: Survey Evidence from the Currency Board in Bulgaria," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 111-121.
    6. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
    7. Ramon Moreno, 1995. "Macroeconomic behavior during periods of speculative pressure or realignment: evidence from Pacific Basin economies," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
    8. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    9. Castrén, Olli & Takalo, Tuomas & Wood, Geoffrey, 2004. "Labour market reform and the sustainability of exchange rate pegs," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2004, Bank of Finland.
    10. Sachs, Jeffrey & Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1996. "The Mexican peso crisis: Sudden death or death foretold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 265-283, November.
    11. Andres Velasco, 1996. "When Are Fixed Exchange Rates Really Fixed?," NBER Working Papers 5842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Olli Castrén & Tuomas Takalo & Geoffrey Wood, 2010. "Unemployment Persistence And The Sustainability Of Exchange Rate Pegs," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(1), pages 85-102, February.
    13. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    14. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "Models of Speculative Attacks and Crashes in International Capital Markets," CEIS Research Paper 245, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jul 2012.
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2004_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Takalo, Tuomas & Castrén, Olli & Wood, Geoffrey, 2004. "Labour market reform and the sustainability of exchange rate pegs," Working Paper Series 406, European Central Bank.
    17. Tejada, César A. O. & Portugal, Marcelo S., 2002. "Credibility and Reputation: An Application of the External Circumstances Model for the Real Plan," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 56(4), October.
    18. Richard Mash, 2000. "The Time Inconsistency of Monetary Policy with Inflation Persistence," Economics Series Working Papers 15, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    19. Ansgar Belke & Lukas Vogel, 2015. "Monetary commitment and structural reforms: a dynamic panel analysis for transition economies," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 375-392, September.
    20. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai, 2011. "Trade Openness, Market Competition, and Inflation: Some Sectoral Evidence from OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 3690, CESifo.
    21. Alpanda, Sami & Honig, Adam, 2010. "Political monetary cycles and a de facto ranking of central bank independence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1003-1023, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:55:y:2008:i:1:p:79-106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sesssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.