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SEMIFAR Forecasts, with Applications to Foreign Exchange Rates

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  • Beran, Jan
  • Ocker, Dirk

Abstract

SEMIFAR models introduced in Beran (1999) provide a semiparametric modelling framework that enables the data analyst to separate deterministic and stochastic trends as well as short- and long-memory components in an observed time series. A correct distinction between these components, and in particular, the decision which of the components may be present in the data have an important impact on forecasts. in this paper, forecasts and forecast intervals for SEMIFAR models are obtained. The forecasts are based on an extrapolation of the stochastic component. In the data analystical part of the paper, the proposed method is applied to foreign exchange rates from Europe and Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Beran, Jan & Ocker, Dirk, 1999. "SEMIFAR Forecasts, with Applications to Foreign Exchange Rates," CoFE Discussion Papers 99/13, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cofedp:9913
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Beran, Jan & Feng, Yuanhua & Ghosh, Sucharita & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2002. "On robust local polynomial estimation with long-memory errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 227-241.
    2. Beran, Jan & Feng, Yuanhua, 2000. "Data-driven estimation of semiparametric fractional autoregressive models," CoFE Discussion Papers 00/16, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    3. Rob J Hyndman & Maxwell L. King & Ivet Pitrun & Baki Billah, 2002. "Local Linear Forecasts Using Cubic Smoothing Splines," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    4. Fernandez, Viviana, 2008. "The war on terror and its impact on the long-term volatility of financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-26.
    5. Abderrazak Ben Maatoug & Rim Lamouchi & Russell Davidson & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2018. "Modelling Foreign Exchange Realized Volatility Using High Frequency Data: Long Memory versus Structural Breaks," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, March.
    6. Ana Pérez & Esther Ruiz, 2002. "Modelos de memoria larga para series económicas y financieras," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(3), pages 395-445, September.
    7. Mohamed Chikhi & Anne Péguin-Feissolle & Michel Terraza, 2013. "SEMIFARMA-HYGARCH Modeling of Dow Jones Return Persistence," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 249-265, February.
    8. Beran, Jan & Feng, Yuanhua, 2002. "Recent Developments in Non- and Semiparametric Regression with Fractional Time Series Errors," CoFE Discussion Papers 02/13, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    9. Beran, Jan, 2008. "A nonparametric regression cross spectrum for multivariate time series," CoFE Discussion Papers 08/01, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    10. Beran, Jan & Heiler, Mark A., 2008. "A nonparametric regression cross spectrum for multivariate time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 99(4), pages 684-714, April.
    11. Sebastian Letmathe & Yuanhua Feng & André Uhde, 2021. "Semiparametric GARCH models with long memory applied to Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall," Working Papers CIE 141, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    12. Beran, Jan & Feng, Yuanhua & Franke, Günter & Hess, Dieter & Ocker, Dirk, 1999. "SEMIFAR Models, with Applications to Commodities, Exchange Rates and the Volatility of Stock Market Indices," CoFE Discussion Papers 99/18, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    13. David T. L. Siu & John Okunev, 2009. "Forecasting exchange rate volatility: a multiple horizon comparison using historical, realized and implied volatility measures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 465-486.
    14. Feng, Yuanhua & Zhou, Chen, 2015. "Forecasting financial market activity using a semiparametric fractionally integrated Log-ACD," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 349-363.
    15. Feng, Yuanhua & Yu, Keming, 2006. "Nonparametric estimation of time-varying covariance matrix in a slowly changing vector random walk model," MPRA Paper 1597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Jan Beran & Yuanhua Feng & Sucharita Ghosh, 2015. "Modelling long-range dependence and trends in duration series: an approach based on EFARIMA and ESEMIFAR models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 431-451, May.
    17. Jan Beran & Yuanhua Feng, 2002. "Local Polynomial Fitting with Long-Memory, Short-Memory and Antipersistent Errors," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 54(2), pages 291-311, June.
    18. Beran, Jan, 2002. "Prediction of 0-1-events for short- and long-memory time series," CoFE Discussion Papers 02/11, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    19. Beran, Jan & Ocker, Dirk, 1999. "Volatility of Stock Market Indices - An Analysis based on SEMIFAR Models," CoFE Discussion Papers 99/14, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    20. Ghosh, Sucharita & Draghicescu, Dana, 2002. "Predicting the distribution function for long-memory processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 283-290.
    21. Yuanhua Feng & Jan Beran & Sebastian Letmathe, 2021. "An extended exponential SEMIFAR model with application in R," Working Papers CIE 145, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    22. Dominique Guegan, 2003. "A prospective study of the k-factor Gegenbauer processes with heteroscedastic errors and an application to inflation rates," Post-Print halshs-00201314, HAL.
    23. Beran, Jan & Feng, Yuanhua, 2001. "Iterative plug-in algorithms for SEMIFAR models - definition, convergence and asymptotic properties," CoFE Discussion Papers 01/11, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    24. Chun-Hung Chen & Wei-Choun Yu & Eric Zivot, 2009. "Predicting Stock Volatility Using After-Hours Information," Working Papers UWEC-2009-01, University of Washington, Department of Economics.

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