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Volatility of Stock Market Indices - An Analysis based on SEMIFAR Models

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  • Beran, Jan
  • Ocker, Dirk

Abstract

By applying SEMIFAR models (Beran, 1999), we examine 'long memory' in the volatility of worldwide stock market indices. Our analysis yields strong evidence of 'long memory' in stock market volatility, either in terms of stochastic long-range dependence or in form of deterministic trends. In some cases, both components are detected in the data. Thus, at least partially, there appears to be even stronger and more systematic 'long memory', than suggested by a stationary model with long-range dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Beran, Jan & Ocker, Dirk, 1999. "Volatility of Stock Market Indices - An Analysis based on SEMIFAR Models," CoFE Discussion Papers 99/14, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cofedp:9914
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
    3. Crato, Nuno & de Lima, Pedro J. F., 1994. "Long-range dependence in the conditional variance of stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 281-285.
    4. Beran, Jan, 1999. "SEMIFAR Models - A Semiparametric Framework for Modelling Trends, Long Range Dependence and Nonstationarity," CoFE Discussion Papers 99/16, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    5. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    6. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J., 1996. "Modeling volatility persistence of speculative returns: A new approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 185-215, July.
    7. Beran, Jan & Feng, Yuanhua & Franke, Günter & Hess, Dieter & Ocker, Dirk, 1999. "SEMIFAR Models, with Applications to Commodities, Exchange Rates and the Volatility of Stock Market Indices," CoFE Discussion Papers 99/18, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    8. Beran, Jan & Ocker, Dirk, 1999. "SEMIFAR Forecasts, with Applications to Foreign Exchange Rates," CoFE Discussion Papers 99/13, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    9. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Beran, Jan & Feng, Yuanhua, 1999. "Local Polynomial Estimation with a FARIMA-GARCH Error Process," CoFE Discussion Papers 99/08, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    2. Mohamed Chikhi & Anne Péguin-Feissolle & Michel Terraza, 2013. "SEMIFARMA-HYGARCH Modeling of Dow Jones Return Persistence," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 249-265, February.
    3. Baillie, Richard T. & Morana, Claudio, 2009. "Modelling long memory and structural breaks in conditional variances: An adaptive FIGARCH approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1577-1592, August.
    4. Beran, Jan & Feng, Yuanhua, 2000. "Data-driven estimation of semiparametric fractional autoregressive models," CoFE Discussion Papers 00/16, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    5. Aloui, Chaker & Hamida, Hela ben, 2014. "Modelling and forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall for GCC stock markets: Do long memory, structural breaks, asymmetry, and fat-tails matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 349-380.
    6. Belkhouja, Mustapha & Boutahary, Mohamed, 2011. "Modeling volatility with time-varying FIGARCH models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1106-1116, May.
    7. Beran, Jan & Feng, Yuanhua, 2001. "Supplement to the Paper "Interative plug-in algorithms for SEMIFAR models - definition, convergence and asymptotic properties": Detailed Simulation Results," CoFE Discussion Papers 01/12, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    8. Beran, Jan & Feng, Yuanhua, 2001. "Iterative plug-in algorithms for SEMIFAR models - definition, convergence and asymptotic properties," CoFE Discussion Papers 01/11, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).

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