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Currency Depreciation and Emerging Market Corporate Distress

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  • Valentina Bruno

    (American University, Washington, District of Columbia 20016)

  • Hyun Song Shin

    (Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Basel-Stadt 4002, Switzerland)

Abstract

How do emerging market corporates fare during periods of currency depreciation? We find that nonfinancial firms that exploit favorable global financing conditions to issue U.S. dollar bonds and build cash balances are also those whose share price is most vulnerable to local currency depreciation. In particular, firms’ vulnerability to currency depreciation derives less from the foreign currency debt as such, and more from the cash balances that are built up by using foreign currency debt. Overall, our results point to a financial motive for dollar bond issuance by emerging market firms in carry trade–like transactions that leave them vulnerable in an environment of dollar strength.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2020. "Currency Depreciation and Emerging Market Corporate Distress," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(5), pages 1935-1961, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:66:y:2020:i:5:p:1935-1961
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2018.3280
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    emerging market corporate debt; currency mismatch; liability dollarization; global financial conditions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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