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China's capital controls: Through the prism of covered interest differentials

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  • Cheung, Yin-Wong
  • Herrala, Risto

Abstract

We study the renminbi (RMB) covered interest differential - an indicator of the effectiveness of capital controls. It is found that the differential is not shrinking over time and, in fact, appears larger after the global financial crisis than before. That is, capital controls in China are still substantial and effective. In addition to exchange rate changes and volatilities, the RMB covered interest differential is affected by credit market tightness indicators. The marginal explanatory power of these macroeconomic factors, however, is small relative to the autoregressive component and the dummy variables that capture changes in China's policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheung, Yin-Wong & Herrala, Risto, 2013. "China's capital controls: Through the prism of covered interest differentials," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2013, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2013_022
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. China's Capital Controls and the Exchange Rate Regime
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2014-08-28 17:12:18

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    3. Ho, Chun-Yu & Ho, Wai-Yip Alex & Li, Dan, 2015. "Intranational risk sharing and its determinants," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 89-113.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2016. "China's capital flight: Pre- and post-crisis experiences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 88-112.
    5. Verikios, George, 2015. "The Implications for Trade And FDI Flows From Liberalisation of China’s Capital Account," Conference papers 332655, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Zhou, Yang, 2024. "Benefits and costs: The impact of capital control on growth-at-risk in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    7. Tao Cai & Vinh Q. T. Dang & Jennifer T. Lai, 2016. "China's Capital and ‘Hot’ Money Flows: An Empirical Investigation," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 276-294, August.
    8. Biswas, Amit K. & von Hagen, Jürgen & Sarkar, Sandip, 2022. "FDI Mismatch, trade Mis-reporting, and hidden capital Movements: The USA - China case," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    9. Zhitao Lin & Jinzhao Chen & Xingwang Qian, 2022. "Capital controls and the volatility of the renminbi covered interest deviation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 205-236, February.
    10. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 2014. "The Role of Offshore Financial Centers in the Process of Renminbi Internationalization," ADBI Working Papers 472, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    11. Zhitao Lin & Wenjie Zhan & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2016. "China's Bilateral Currency Swap Lines," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(6), pages 19-42, November.
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    13. Liu, Tao, 2014. "The onshore-offshore interaction of RMB market: a high-frequency analysis," MPRA Paper 63905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Lin, Mucai & Niu, Linlin, 2021. "Echo over the great wall: Spillover effects of QE announcements on Chinese yield curve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
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    16. Yin-Wong Cheung & Risto Herrala, 2014. "China's Capital Controls: Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 112-134, February.
    17. Chen, Jinzhao & Qian, Xingwang, 2016. "Measuring on-going changes in China's capital controls: A de jure and a hybrid index data set," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 167-182.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    NDF implied RMB interest rate; capital controls; asymmetric response; macro determinants; credit market tightness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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