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The financial trilemma in China and a comparative analysis with India

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  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Sengupta, Rajeswari

Abstract

A key challenge facing most emerging market economies today is how to simultaneously maintain monetary independence, exchange rate stability and financial integration subject to the constraints imposed by the Trilemma, in an era of widespread globalization. In this paper we overview and contrast the Trilemma policy choices and tradeoffs faced by the two key drivers of global economic growth-China and India. China’s Trilemma configurations are unique relative to other emerging markets in the predominance of exchange rate stability, and in the failure of the Trilemma regression to capture a consistently significant role for financial integration. In contrast, the Trilemma configurations of India are in line with choices made by other emerging countries. India like other emerging economies has overtime converged towards a middle ground between the three policy objectives, and has achieved comparable levels of exchange rate stability and financial integration buffered by sizeable international reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Aizenman, Joshua & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2011. "The financial trilemma in China and a comparative analysis with India," MPRA Paper 39798, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Jul 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39798
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2012. "The Financial Crisis, Rethinking of the Global Financial Architecture, and the Trilemma," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Shinji Takagi (ed.), Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2011. "Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 290-320, September.
    3. S. Mahendra Dev, 2008. "India," Chapters, in: Anis Chowdhury & Wahiduddin Mahmud (ed.), Handbook on the South Asian Economies, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial trilemma; International reserves; Foreign exchange intervention; Monetary policy; Capital account openness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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