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Does the Chinese interest rate follow the US interest rate?

Author

Listed:
  • Yin-Wong Cheung
  • Dickson C. Tam

    (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, Hong Kong)

  • Matthew S. Yiu

    (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, Hong Kong)

Abstract

One argument for floating the Chinese renminbi (RMB) is to insulate China's monetary policy from the US effect. However, we note that both theoretical considerations and empirical results do not offer a definite answer on the link between exchange rate arrangement and policy dependence. We examine the empirical relevance of the argument by analysing the interactions between the Chinese and the US interest rates. Our empirical results, which appear robust to various assumptions of data persistence, suggest that the US effect on the Chinese interest rate is quite weak. Apparently, even with its de facto peg to the US dollar, China has alternative measures to retain its policy independence and de-link its interest rates from the US rate. In other words, the argument for a flexible RMB to insulate China's monetary policy from the US effect is not substantiated by the observed interest rate interactions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson C. Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2008. "Does the Chinese interest rate follow the US interest rate?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 53-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:13:y:2008:i:1:p:53-67
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.349
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    Cited by:

    1. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "When You Got Nothing, You Got Nothing to Lose – Regional Monetary Integration and Policy Independence," Chapters, in: Ulrich Volz (ed.), Regional Integration, Economic Development and Global Governance, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Hutchison, Michael & Kendall, Jake & Pasricha, Gurnain & Singh, Nirvikar, 2009. "Indian capital control liberalization: Evidence from NDF markets," Working Papers 09/60, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    3. Amegashie, J. Atsu & Ouattara, Bazoumanna & Strobl, Eric, 2007. "Moral Hazard and the Composition of Transfers: Theory with an Application to Foreign Aid," MPRA Paper 3158, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 May 2007.
    4. Guonan Ma & Robert N McCauley, 2008. "Efficacy Of China'S Capital Controls: Evidence From Price And Flow Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 104-123, February.
    5. Michael M Hutchison & Gurnain Kaur Pasricha & Nirvikar Singh, 2012. "Effectiveness of Capital Controls in India: Evidence from the Offshore NDF Market," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(3), pages 395-438, September.
    6. George M. von Furstenberg, 2007. "Aspects, Models and Measures for Assessing the Competitiveness of International Financial Services in a Particular Location," Working Papers 182007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    7. Tao Cai & Vinh Q. T. Dang & Jennifer T. Lai, 2016. "China's Capital and ‘Hot’ Money Flows: An Empirical Investigation," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 276-294, August.
    8. Amit Ghosh & Ramya Ghosh, 2012. "Capital controls, exchange rate regime and monetary policy independence in India," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(3), pages 212-230.
    9. Yin-Wong Cheung & Risto Herrala, 2014. "China's Capital Controls: Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 112-134, February.
    10. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2009. "Navigating the trilemma: Capital flows and monetary policy in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 205-224, May.
    11. Yu Hsing, 2012. "Exchange Rate Arrangements and Monetary Autonomy in Fourteen Selected Asian and Pacific Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1731-1736.
    12. Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson C. Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2008. "Does the Chinese interest rate follow the US interest rate?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 53-67.
    13. Reade, J. James & Volz, Ulrich, 2010. "Chinese monetary policy and the dollar peg," Discussion Papers 2010/35, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    14. Juha Tervala, 2019. "U.S. monetary policy and China's exchange rate policy during the great recession," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 113-130, January.
    15. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "From the General to the Specific," Discussion Papers 11-18, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    16. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2013. "China's financial linkages with Asia and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 186-206.
    17. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. George Furstenberg, 2008. "Assessing the Competitiveness of International Financial Services in Particular Locations: A Survey of Methods and Perspectives," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 539-556, September.
    19. James Galbraith & Sara Hsu & Wenjie Zhang, 2009. "Beijing Bubble, Beijing Bust: Inequality, Trade, and Capital Inflow into China," Journal of Current Chinese Affairs - China aktuell, Institute of Asian Studies, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg, vol. 38(2), pages 3-26.
    20. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert, 2015. "Examining the exchange rate regime–monetary policy autonomy nexus: Evidence from Malaysia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 292-303.
    21. Yu You & Yoonbai Kim & Xiaomei Ren, 2014. "Do Capital Controls Enhance Monetary Independence?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 475-489, August.
    22. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Fog Encircling The Renminbi Debate," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 52(03), pages 403-418.
    23. Lindenberg, Nannette & Westermann, Frank, 2012. "Common trends and common cycles among interest rates of the G7-countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1125-1140.
    24. Yin-Wong Cheung & Risto Herrala, 2014. "China's Capital Controls: Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 112-134, February.
    25. Simeon Nanovsky & Yoonbai Kim, 2018. "International Capital Movement and Monetary Independence in Asia," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 24(2), pages 179-198, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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