New directions of trade for the agri-food industry: a disaggregated approach for different income countries, 1963-2000

The objective of the present study is to explain the fundamental changes experienced by agricultural trade in the second half of the XX century. The first of these was a progressive concentration of this trade among developed countries, while the second was a significant boom in agricultural trade among developing countries, since the final decade of the last century.Our gravity model underlines that, the agricultural products exported by the Southern countries to any destination had a demand elasticity which was negative and statistically signficant. Furthermore, this model has also permitted verification that Regional Trade Agreements have significantly encouraged agricultural trade among developed countries. In contrast, the developing countries were faced with highly protected markets and a relative initial failure in their attempts to liberalize their regional markets. The boom from the final decade of the XX century in South-South agricultural trade can be explained, by the stimulus provided by the new RTAs among developing countries.