IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpgt/0412016.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effects of Portfolio Planning Methods on Decision Making: Experimental Results

Author

Listed:
  • JS Armstrong

    (The Wharton School - University of Pennsylvania)

  • Roderick J. Brodie

    (Department of Marketing, University of Auckland,)

Abstract

Subjects (n = 1015) working individually in the role of managers were asked to choose between investment opportunities that would either double their investment or cause the loss of half of it. Six administrators ran experiments on 27 occasions in six countries over a five-year period. Information about the BCG matrix increased the subjects' likelihood of selecting the project that was clearly less profitable. Of subjects exposed to the BCG matrix, 64% selected the unprofitable investment. Of subjects who used the BCG matrix in their analysis, 87% selected the less profitable investment.

Suggested Citation

  • JS Armstrong & Roderick J. Brodie, 2004. "Effects of Portfolio Planning Methods on Decision Making: Experimental Results," General Economics and Teaching 0412016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0412016
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/get/papers/0412/0412016.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arkes, Hal R. & Dawes, Robyn M. & Christensen, Caryn, 1986. "Factors influencing the use of a decision rule in a probabilistic task," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 93-110, February.
    2. Ashton, Rh & Kramer, Ss, 1980. "Students As Surrogates In Behavioral Accounting Research - Some Evidence," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 1-15.
    3. Arnoldo C. Hax & Nicolas S. Majluf, 1983. "The Use of the Growth-Share Matrix in Strategic Planning," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 13(1), pages 46-60, February.
    4. Arkes, Hal R. & Blumer, Catherine, 1985. "The psychology of sunk cost," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 124-140, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Juhi Gahlot Sarkar, 2019. "Managing brand strength in a brand portfolio: A conceptual analysis," Journal of Administrative and Business Studies, Professor Dr. Usman Raja, vol. 5(4), pages 219-227.
    2. JS Armstrong & Roderick J. Brodie, 2004. "Portfolio Planning Methods: Faulty Approach or Faulty Research? A Rejoinder to 'Making Better Decisions' by Wensley," General Economics and Teaching 0412017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mohajan, Haradhan, 2015. "Present and Future of Nestlé Bangladesh Limited," MPRA Paper 82850, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Apr 2015.
    4. Wetzstein, Anton & Hartmann, Evi & Benton jr., W.C. & Hohenstein, Nils-Ole, 2016. "A systematic assessment of supplier selection literature – State-of-the-art and future scope," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 304-323.
    5. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1996. "Competitor Orientation: Effects of Objectives and Information on Managerial Decisions and Profitability," MPRA Paper 81676, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2005. "Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    7. Roger Marshall & David Bibby & Na WoonBong, 2013. "Making Sense of Complex Marketing Decision Systems: Decision System Analysis," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 12(2), pages 121-130, December.
    8. Haradhan Kumar Mohajan, 2018. "An Analysis on BCG Growth Sharing Matrix," Noble International Journal of Business and Management Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 2(1), pages 1-6, January.
    9. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2003. "Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: Evidence and proposals," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 69-84, January.
    10. Nudurupati, Sai Sudhakar & Bhattacharya, Arijit & Lascelles, David & Caton, Nicholas, 2015. "Strategic sourcing with multi-stakeholders through value co-creation: An evidence from global health care company," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 248-257.
    11. Florin Tudor Ionescu, 2011. "Boston Consulting Group II – A Business Portfolio Analysis Matrix," International Journal of Economic Practices and Theories, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 1(2), pages 65-70, September.
    12. de Villiers, Rouxelle & Woodside, Arch G. & Marshall, Roger, 2016. "Making tough decisions competently: Assessing the value of product portfolio planning methods, devil’s advocacy, group discussion, weighting priorities, and evidenced-based information," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(8), pages 2849-2862.
    13. Paula Jarzabkowski & Sarah Kaplan, 2015. "Strategy tools-in-use: A framework for understanding “technologies of rationality” in practice," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 537-558, April.
    14. Chang, Wen-Long & Chen, Shih-Ting, 2015. "The impact of World Café on entrepreneurial strategic planning capability," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1283-1290.
    15. Woodside, Arch G., 2012. "Incompetency training: Theory, practice, and remedies," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 279-293.
    16. Herbert Dawid & Marc Reimann, 2005. "Evaluating Market Attractiveness: Individual Incentives Versus Industry Profitability," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 24(4), pages 321-355, June.
    17. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2004. "Effects of Objectives and Information on Managerial Decisions and Profitability," General Economics and Teaching 0412014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Hanno Drews, 2008. "Abschied vom Marktwachstums-Marktanteils-Portfolio nach über 35 Jahren Einsatz? Eine kritische Überprüfung der BCG-Matrix," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 39-57, May.
    19. Nippa, Michael, 2011. "Zur Notwendigkeit des Corporate Portfolio Management: Eine Würdigung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung der letzten vier Jahrzehnte," Freiberg Working Papers 2011/02, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christine R. Ohlert & Barbara E. Weißenberger, 2020. "Debiasing escalation of commitment: the effectiveness of decision aids to enhance de-escalation," Journal of Management Control: Zeitschrift für Planung und Unternehmenssteuerung, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 405-438, February.
    2. Duxbury, Darren, 2012. "Sunk costs and sunk benefits: A re-examination of re-investment decisions," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 144-156.
    3. Armstrong, J. Scott & Coviello, Nicole & Safranek, Barbara, 1993. "Escalation bias: does it extend to marketing?," MPRA Paper 81685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lawrence, Michael & Sim, William, 1999. "Prototyping a financial DSS," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 445-450, August.
    5. Sleesman, Dustin J., 2019. "Pushing through the tension while stuck in the mud: Paradox mindset and escalation of commitment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 83-96.
    6. Boehne, Donna M. & Paese, Paul W., 2000. "Deciding Whether to Complete or Terminate an Unfinished Project: A Strong Test of the Project Completion Hypothesis," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 178-194, March.
    7. Freeman, Steven F., 1997. "Good decisions : reconciling human rationality, evolution, and ethics," Working papers WP 3962-97., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    8. Alexandra Rausch & Alexander Brauneis, 2015. "It’s about how the task is set: the inclusion–exclusion effect and accountability in preprocessing management information," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 23(2), pages 313-344, June.
    9. Andrea Morone & Simone Nuzzo & Rocco Caferra, 2019. "The Dollar Auction Game: A Laboratory Comparison Between Individuals and Groups," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 79-98, February.
    10. Louis Lévy-Garboua & Claude Montmarquette, 1996. "Cognition In Seemingly Riskless Choices And Judgments," Rationality and Society, , vol. 8(2), pages 167-185, May.
    11. H. Henry Cao & Bing Han & David Hirshleifer & Harold H. Zhang, 2011. "Fear of the Unknown: Familiarity and Economic Decisions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(1), pages 173-206.
    12. repec:cup:judgdm:v:8:y:2013:i:5:p:521-526 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Liu, Jianing & Wen, Xiao & Jian, Sisi, 2024. "Toward better equity: Analyzing travel patterns through a neural network approach in mobility-as-a-service," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 110-126.
    14. Mehmet Nar, 2015. "The Effects of Behavioral Economics on Tax Amnesty," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 580-589.
    15. Christoph Bühren & Thorben C. Kundt, 2013. "Worker or Shirker – Who Evades More Taxes? A Real Effort Experiment," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201326, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    16. Zhang, nan & Qin, Botao, 2020. "Reference point adaptation and air quality – Experimental evidence with anti-PM 2.5 facemasks from China," MPRA Paper 102935, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Bahigansenga Silas, 2023. "Effect of Parental Engagement on Students’ Performance in Bugesera District, Rwanda," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(8), pages 1878-1894, August.
    18. Hisaki Kono & Yasuyuki Sawada & Abu S. Shonchoy, 2016. "DVD-based Distance-learning Program for University Entrance Exams: Experimental Evidence from Rural Bangladesh," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1027, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    19. Funk, Matt, 2008. "On the Problem of Sustainable Economic Development: A Theoretical Solution to this Prisoner's Dilemma," MPRA Paper 19025, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jun 2008.
    20. Mahmud, Hasan & Islam, A.K.M. Najmul & Ahmed, Syed Ishtiaque & Smolander, Kari, 2022. "What influences algorithmic decision-making? A systematic literature review on algorithm aversion," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    21. Kim, Jungkeun, 2019. "The impact of different price promotions on customer retention," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 95-102.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    decision making; marketing; portfolio planning methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A - General Economics and Teaching

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0412016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.