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Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984

Author

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  • JS Armstrong

    (The Wharton School - University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has grown rapidly, especially in the area of judgmental forecasting. This research supports and adds to the forecasting guidelines proposed before 1960, such as the value of combining forecasts. New findings have led to significant gains in our ability to forecast and to help people to use forecasts. What have we reamed about forecasting over the past quarter century? Does recent research provide guidance for making more accurate forecasts, obtaining better assessments of uncertainty, or gaining acceptance of our forecasts? I will first describe forecasting principles that were believed to be the most advanced in 1960. Following that, I will examine the evidence produced since 1960.

Suggested Citation

  • JS Armstrong, 2004. "Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984," General Economics and Teaching 0412006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0412006
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 13
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    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/get/papers/0412/0412006.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Everette S. Gardner, Jr. & Ed. Mckenzie, 1985. "Forecasting Trends in Time Series," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(10), pages 1237-1246, October.
    2. repec:bla:econom:v:50:y:1983:i:199:p:249-58 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Robin M. Hogarth & Spyros Makridakis, 1981. "Forecasting and Planning: An Evaluation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 115-138, February.
    4. J. Scott Armstrong, 1984. "Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 14(6), pages 52-66, December.
    5. Arthur Okun, 1960. "The Value of Anticipations Data in Forecasting National Product," NBER Chapters, in: The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data, pages 407-460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Spyros Makridakis & Robert L. Winkler, 1983. "Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(9), pages 987-996, September.
    7. Robert Levine, 1960. "Capital Expenditures Forecasts by Individual Firms," NBER Chapters, in: The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data, pages 351-368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; forecasting research;

    JEL classification:

    • A - General Economics and Teaching

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