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Reform, FDI and Economic Growth: Tale of the Tortoise and the Hare

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  • Bruno Merlevede
  • Koen Schoors

Abstract

Our main interest is the impact of the choice of the speed of economic reform on economic growth. We estimate a system of 3 equations where economic growth, economic reform and FDI are jointly determined. We find that new reforms affect economic growth negatively but attract FDI, whereas the level of past reform leads to higher growth. This means that the immediate adjustment cost of new reforms is counterbalanced by an immediate increase in FDI inflows and higher growth in the future through a higher level of past reform. Reform reversals contribute to lower growth. We use the model to simulate the impact of big bang reform and gradualist reform on economic growth. This is only meaningful in the presence of reform reversals, which requires aggregate uncertainty about the appropriate reform path. Using the coefficients from the empirical model we find that even relatively small ex ante reversal probabilities suffice to tilt the balance in favour of gradualism. This could be reinforced by the shortsightedness of policymakers, but may be moderated by voter myopia.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Merlevede & Koen Schoors, 2004. "Reform, FDI and Economic Growth: Tale of the Tortoise and the Hare," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp730, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2004-730
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nauro F. Campos & Yuko Kinoshita, 2002. "Foreign Direct Investment as Technology Transferred: Some Panel Evidence from the Transition Economies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(3), pages 398-419, June.
    2. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
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    5. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini, 1992. "Political Cycles in OECD Economies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(4), pages 663-688.
    6. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    7. Gérard Roland, 2004. "Transition and Economics: Politics, Markets, and Firms," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026268148x, April.
    8. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Mr. Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies: Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 1999/073, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Stuckler & Lawrence King & Greg Patton, 2009. "The Social Construction of Successful Market Reforms," Working Papers wp199, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    2. David Stuckler & Lawrence P. King, 2007. "Social Costs of Mass Privatization," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp890, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    3. Pavel Grigoriev & Vladimir Shkolnikov & Evgueni Andreev & Domantas Jasilionis & Dmitri Jdanov & France Meslé & Jacques Vallin, 2010. "Mortality in Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia: Divergence in Recent Trends and Possible Explanations [La mortalité en Biélorussie, Lituanie et Russie: Divergence dans les Tendances Récentes et Explic," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 245-274, August.
    4. Kosta Josifidis & Radmila Dragutinović Mitrović & Olgica Ivančev, 2012. "Heterogeneity of Growth in the West Balkans and Emerging Europe: A Dynamic Panel Data Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(2), pages 157-183, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    policy reform; gradualism; big bang; FDI; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • P21 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform
    • P26 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Property Rights
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

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