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Политика Реформ, Начальные Условия И Трансформационный Спад
[Reform policies, initial conditions, and transformational recession]

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  • Polterovich, Victor
  • Katyshev, Pavel

Abstract

In this paper we formulate and substantiate a hypothesis that the magnitude of the transformational recession in transition economies in the last decade of 20th centaury was determined not only by initial pre-reformed conditions but also by privatization policies. Results of regression analysis that confirm this hypothesis are presented. It is shown that GDP decline during the first 9 years of reforms was the greater the more radical was privatization at the start of reforms. Our calculations also demonstrate that governments selected the starting speed of price and foreign trade liberalization taking into account initial conditions. This observation may explain the non-significance of the speed of liberalization in the regressions.

Suggested Citation

  • Polterovich, Victor & Katyshev, Pavel, 2006. "Политика Реформ, Начальные Условия И Трансформационный Спад [Reform policies, initial conditions, and transformational recession]," MPRA Paper 21551, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21551
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    rate of privatization; liberalization indices; insignificance of the liberalization rate; shadow economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P2 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies

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