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Mortality in Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia: Divergence in Recent Trends and Possible Explanations
[La mortalité en Biélorussie, Lituanie et Russie: Divergence dans les Tendances Récentes et Explications Possibles]

Author

Listed:
  • Pavel Grigoriev

    (Rostock Center for the Study of Demographic Change/Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Vladimir Shkolnikov

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Evgueni Andreev

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Domantas Jasilionis

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Dmitri Jdanov

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • France Meslé

    (Institut National d’études Démographiques (INED))

  • Jacques Vallin

    (Institut National d’études Démographiques (INED))

Abstract

Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia were quite comparable in terms of their socioeconomic development. Despite some differences in overall mortality levels, the three former Soviet republics were also very close to each other in terms of directions of mortality trends and age- and cause-specific mortality patterns. After 1991, all the three countries experienced substantial political and social transformations, and the challenges associated with the transition from a socialist to a market economy system. The sudden changes brought numerous problems, such as rapid growth in unemployment, falling standards of living, and growing social and income inequalities. These factors contributed to the significant deterioration of the health situation in all the countries, but the size and the nature of the mortality crisis was different in Belarus than it was in Lithuania and Russia. The marked similarities in socioeconomic and mortality trends in the countries up to 1991 contrast with their notable divergence during the subsequent years. The nature and success of market reforms seems to be the most plausible explanation for these differences. Russia and Lithuania have chosen more radical forms of economic and political transformations, which have led to massive privatization campaigns. The reforms were more sustainable and systematic in Lithuania than in Russia. By contrast, Belarus has chosen a gradual and slow transition path. Recent mortality trends in Belarus are explored in detail here, and are contrasted with those observed in Lithuania and Russia. Including a cause-of-death analysis sheds more light on the plausible determinants of the variations in mortality levels between the countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavel Grigoriev & Vladimir Shkolnikov & Evgueni Andreev & Domantas Jasilionis & Dmitri Jdanov & France Meslé & Jacques Vallin, 2010. "Mortality in Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia: Divergence in Recent Trends and Possible Explanations [La mortalité en Biélorussie, Lituanie et Russie: Divergence dans les Tendances Récentes et Explic," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 245-274, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:26:y:2010:i:3:d:10.1007_s10680-010-9210-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-010-9210-1
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    Cited by:

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    2. Katerina Lisenkova & Kateryna Bornukova, 2017. "Effects of population ageing on the pension system in Belarus," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 103-118.
    3. Mackenbach, Johan P. & McKee, Martin, 2015. "Government, politics and health policy: A quantitative analysis of 30 European countries," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(10), pages 1298-1308.
    4. Mackenbach, Johan P. & Hu, Yannan & Looman, Caspar W.N., 2013. "Democratization and life expectancy in Europe, 1960–2008," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 166-175.
    5. Jan Saarela & Fjalar Finnäs, 2012. "Long-term Mortality of War Cohorts: The Case of Finland," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 1-15, February.
    6. Rok Hrzic & Tobias Vogt & Helmut Brand & Fanny Janssen, 2021. "The Short-Term Effects of European Integration on Mortality Convergence: A Case Study of European Union’s 2004 Enlargement," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(4), pages 909-931, November.
    7. France Meslé & Jacques Vallin, 2017. "The End of East–West Divergence in European Life Expectancies? An Introduction to the Special Issue," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 615-627, December.
    8. Pavel Grigoriev & Olga Grigorieva, 2011. "Self-perceived health in Belarus: Evidence from the income and expenditures of households survey," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 24(23), pages 551-578.
    9. Vytenis Juozas Deimantas & A. Ebru Şanlıtürk & Leo Azzollini & Selin Köksal, 2024. "Population Dynamics and Policies in Europe: Analysis of Population Resilience at the Subnational and National Levels," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(2), pages 1-28, April.
    10. Joel E. Cohen & Christina Bohk-Ewald & Roland Rau, 2018. "Gompertz, Makeham, and Siler models explain Taylor's law in human mortality data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(29), pages 773-842.

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