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From abnormal to normal : Two tales of growth from 25 years of transition

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  • Torbjörn Becker
  • Anders Olofsgård

Abstract

We look at the growth experience of 25 transition countries over the 25 years since the dissolution of the USSR. The initial collapse in income was much more severe in 12 former Soviet Union countries (FSU12) than in the 10 transition countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007 (EU10). In 2015, FSU12 income levels were further behind EU10 than they were at the start of transition, despite more rapid growth in the last 15 years. Compared to predictions from a parsimonious growth model, the region as a whole is ‘normal’ in terms of growth performance since the 2000s. However, the FSU12 over‐perform and the EU10 under‐perform relative to model predictions for the last 15 years.

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  • Torbjörn Becker & Anders Olofsgård, 2018. "From abnormal to normal : Two tales of growth from 25 years of transition," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 26(4), pages 769-800, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:26:y:2018:i:4:p:769-800
    DOI: 10.1111/ecot.12195
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    1. Torbjörn Becker & Anders Olofsgård, 2018. "From abnormal to normal : Two tales of growth from 25 years of transition," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 26(4), pages 769-800, October.
    2. Becker, Torbjörn, 2019. "Russia’s macroeconomy—a closer look at growth, investment, and uncertainty," SITE Working Paper Series 49, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
    3. Cristian Incaltarau & Ilkhom Sharipov & Gabriela Carmen Pascariu & Teodor Lucian Moga, 2022. "Growth and convergence in Eastern Partnership and Central Asian countries since the dissolution of the USSR—embarking on different development paths?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(1), January.
    4. Jean‐Marc B. Atsebi, 2024. "Igniting growth surges: Lessons from the past," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(2), pages 525-569, April.

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    JEL classification:

    • O00 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - General - - - General
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General

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