Natural resources and ‘gradual’ reform in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan

Among low‐income transition reformers, natural resource rents are an important initial condition that helps explain choice of reform strategy. Resource‐rich Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan and resource‐poor China and Vietnam all claim to pursue gradual reform, but their strategies differ. In China and Vietnam, low resource rents have nurtured developmental political conditions and encouraged efficient resource use, which initially promoted agriculture as a dynamic market sector, capable of absorbing labour from the lagging state sector. In contrast, the scale and ease of natural resource rent extraction in the Central Asian countries has consolidated authoritarian governments that postpone reform. Despite high energy rents, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan still extract agricultural rents in ways that repress farm incentives, perpetuate environmental degradation and liquidate irrigation assets. Uzbekistan uses its rents to subsidize a manufacturing sector, that is neither dynamic nor competitive. As its dynamic sector, Turkmenistan promotes natural gas exports that depend on volatile markets. Resource‐driven development models suggest that reform is required in both countries to avert a growth collapse. Turkmenistan's large energy rent‐stream may postpone a collapse for some years, but Uzbekistan's position is already precarious: it has run down its rural infrastructure and accumulated sizeable foreign debts and will require external assistance to recover from a growth collapse. Such assistance should be made conditional on accelerated economic and political reform.