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Mind the Break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition

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  • Ariane TICHIT

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

  • Jan FIDRMUC

Abstract

We argue that econometric analyses based on transition countries’ data can be vulnerable to structural breaks across time and/or countries. We demonstrate this argument by identifying structural breaks in growth regressions estimated with data for 25 countries and 16 years. Our method allows identification of structural breaks at a-priori unknown points in space or time. The only prior assumption is that breaks occur in relation to progress in implementing market-oriented reforms. We find robust evidence that the pattern of growth in transition has changed at least two times, yielding thus three different models of growth associated with different stages of reform. The speed with which individual countries progress through these stages differs considerably.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariane TICHIT & Jan FIDRMUC, 2008. "Mind the Break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition," Working Papers 200818, CERDI.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1012
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Reform; Structural breaks; Transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P26 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Property Rights
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

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