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Adjusting to Transitory Shocks : Worker Impact, Firm Channels, and (Lack of) Income Support

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  • Fernandes,Ana Margarida
  • Silva,Joana C. G.

Abstract

This paper estimates worker, firm and assistance programs’ responses to foreign shocks in Brazil exploiting quasi-experimental variation in firms’ foreign demand resulting from the Global Financial Crisis. It shows these transitory shocks have permanent effects in a setting characterized by a large informal sector. While the informal sector provides a buffer mitigating long-term scarring, it is not sufficient to compensate worker and firm scarring. Scarring occurs for incumbent workers, not just displaced workers. Linking employer-employee data with the national registry of low-income households, unemployment insurance disbursement records, and worker-level training, the paper finds that assistance programs fail to mitigate adjustment. Training does not respond, unemployment insurance compensates 4 percent of workers’ wage losses and welfare programs 2 percent. Firms in highly concentrated sectors or state-owned do not bear the burden of adjustment. Other firms bear the burden and either exit or restructure, downsizing employment and productivity, scarring incumbent workers and increasing long-run inequality.

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  • Fernandes,Ana Margarida & Silva,Joana C. G., 2023. "Adjusting to Transitory Shocks : Worker Impact, Firm Channels, and (Lack of) Income Support," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10448, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10448
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