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The Costs of Job Displacement over the Business Cycle and Its Sources: Evidence from Germany

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  • Johannes F. Schmieder
  • Till M. von Wachter
  • Jörg Heining

Abstract

We document the sources behind the costs of job loss over the business cycle using administrative data from Germany. Losses in annual earnings after displacement are large, persistent, and highly cyclical, nearly doubling in size during downturns. A large part of the long-term earnings losses and their cyclicality is driven by declines in wages. Key to these long-lasting wage declines and their cyclicality are changes in employer characteristics, as displaced workers switch to lower-paying firms. Changes in characteristics of workers or displacing firms explain little of the cyclicality, though non-employment durations correlated with losses in employer effects play a role.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes F. Schmieder & Till M. von Wachter & Jörg Heining, 2022. "The Costs of Job Displacement over the Business Cycle and Its Sources: Evidence from Germany," NBER Working Papers 30162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30162
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    JEL classification:

    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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