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Economic Growth, Education, and AIDS in Kenya : A Long-run Analysis

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  • Clive Bell
  • Ramona Bruhns
  • Hans Gersbach

Abstract

The AIDS epidemic threatens Kenya with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to the formation of human capital and economic growth. To investigate this possibility, the authors develop a model with three overlapping generations, calibrate it to the demographic and economic series from 1950 until 1990, and then perform simulations for the period ending in 2050 under alternative assumptions about demographic developments, including the counterfactual in which there is no epidemic. Although AIDS does not bring about a catastrophic economic collapse, it does cause large economic costs-and many deaths. Programs that subsidize post-primary education and combat the epidemic are both socially profitable-the latter strikingly so, due to its indirect effects on the expected returns to education-and a combination of the two interventions profits from a modest long-run synergy effect.
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Suggested Citation

  • Clive Bell & Ramona Bruhns & Hans Gersbach, 2006. "Economic Growth, Education, and AIDS in Kenya : A Long-run Analysis," World Bank Publications - Reports 9088, The World Bank Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wboper:9088
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martine AUDIBERT & Pascale COMBES MOTEL & Alassane DRABO, 2010. "Global Burden of Disease and Economic Growth," Working Papers 201036, CERDI.
    2. Martine AUDIBERT, 2008. "Endemic diseases and agricultural productivity: Challenges and policy response," Working Papers 200823, CERDI.
    3. José Cuesta, 2008. "Does a Mature AIDS Epidemic Threaten Growth?," Research Department Publications 4567, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Fitzsimons, Emla & Mesnard, Alice, 2013. "Can conditional cash transfers compensate for a father's absence ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6476, The World Bank.
    5. Egana-delSol, Pablo & Micco, Alejandro, 2024. "The Role of Technological Change in the Evolution of the Employment to Output Elasticity," IZA Discussion Papers 17003, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. José Cuesta, 2008. "Does a Mature AIDS Epidemic Threaten Growth?," Research Department Publications 4567, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    7. Martine Audibert, 2011. "Endemic diseases and agricultural productivity: Challenges and policy response," CERDI Working papers halshs-00563389, HAL.
    8. Mesnard, Alice & Fitzsimons, Emla, 2012. "How children?s schooling and work is affected when their father leaves permanently: Evidence from Colombia," CEPR Discussion Papers 8886, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Emla Fitzsimons & Alice Mesnard, 2012. "How children's schooling and work are affected when their father leaves permanently: evidence from Colombia," IFS Working Papers W12/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    10. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    11. Emla Fitzsimons & Alice Mesnard, 2008. "Are boys and girls affected differently when the household head leaves for good? Evidence from school and work choices in Colombia," IFS Working Papers W08/11, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    12. Mesnard, Alice & Fitzsimons, Emla, 2008. "Are Boys and Girls Affected Differently When the Household Head Leaves for Good? Evidence from School and Work Choices in Colom," CEPR Discussion Papers 7040, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Antonio C. David & Carmen A. Li, 2010. "Exploring the links between HIV|AIDS, social capital and development," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 941-961.
    14. David,Antonio C., 2007. "HIV/AIDS and social capital in a cross-section of countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4263, The World Bank.
    15. Jose Cuesta, 2010. "How much of a threat to economic growth is a mature AIDS epidemic?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3077-3089.
    16. Thornton, Rebecca L., 2012. "HIV testing, subjective beliefs and economic behavior," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 300-313.
    17. José Cuesta, 2008. "¿Una epidemia de SIDA en su etapa madura es una amenaza para el crecimiento?," Research Department Publications 4568, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

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