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How much of a threat to economic growth is a mature AIDS epidemic?

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  • Jose Cuesta

Abstract

The article models the impact on economic growth of HIV/AIDS when the epidemic is in a mature phase, in contrast with previous studies focused on periods of expansion as it is typically the case in African countries. Simulations for Honduras, the epicentre of the epidemic in Central America, show that AIDS is not likely to threaten economic growth neither through labour nor capital accumulation channels. Impacts are estimated between 0.007 and 0.27% points of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth annually for the period 2001 to 2010. Increasing spending on prevention, higher public treatment subsidies and increasing treatment access will not jeopardize economic growth prospects. Critical factors that slash economic growth in Africa (such as human capital reductions and shifts in relative skills) are not strong in Honduras.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Cuesta, 2010. "How much of a threat to economic growth is a mature AIDS epidemic?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3077-3089.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:24:p:3077-3089
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840801964849
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    1. Mr. Markus Haacker & Mr. Gonzalo Salinas, 2006. "HIV/AIDS: The Impact on Poverty and Inequality," IMF Working Papers 2006/126, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Bell, Clive & Bruhns, Ramona & Gersbach, Hans, 2006. "Economic growth, education, and AIDS in Kenya : a long-run analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4025, The World Bank.
    3. Mr. Markus Haacker, 2002. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS," IMF Working Papers 2002/195, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ian M. Trotter & Lu'is A. C. Schmidt & Bruno C. M. Pinto & Andrezza L. Batista & J'essica Pellenz & Maritza Isidro & Aline Rodrigues & Attawan G. S. Suela & Loredany Rodrigues, 2020. "COVID-19 and Global Economic Growth: Policy Simulations with a Pandemic-Enabled Neoclassical Growth Model," Papers 2005.13722, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    2. Xin-Xin Zhao & Pei-Dong Deng, 2021. "Impacts of Epidemics on Energy Security - An Empirical Analysis," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-4.
    3. Laszlo Torok, 2021. "Co-movement in Stock Indices and GDP During the COVID-19 Period in the Countries of the European Union," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 01-19.
    4. Edward Nketiah-Amponsah & Mohammed Abubakari & Priscilla Twumasi Baffour, 2019. "Effect of HIV/AIDS on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Recent Evidence," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(4), pages 469-480, November.
    5. Nepp, Alexander & Okhrin, Ostap & Egorova, Julia & Dzhuraeva, Zarnigor & Zykov, Alexander, 2022. "What threatens stock markets more - The coronavirus or the hype around it?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 519-539.
    6. Jamiu Adetola Odugbesan & Husam Rjoub, 2019. "Relationship among HIV/AIDS Prevalence, Human Capital, Good Governance, and Sustainable Development: Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, March.
    7. Rasaki Stephen Dauda, 2019. "HIV/AIDS and economic growth: Evidence from West Africa," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 324-337, January.

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