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Modelling a Regime-Shifting New Zealand Beveridge Curve

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Abstract

This paper offers new insights into Beveridge curve analysis by modelling the vacancy-unemployment rate relationship within a Markov regime-switching environment in which the probability of curve-shifting is determined endogenously by shift factors. Shift factor candidates include structural factors (such as labour market participation and net migration) and cyclical variables (such as GDP growth and real interest rates). This approach enables us to estimate regime-specific parameters and the role played by shift factors in influencing the transition probabilities of switching between regimes. We illustrate our model with an application to New Zealand.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Dutu & Mark J. Holmes & Brian Silverstone, 2009. "Modelling a Regime-Shifting New Zealand Beveridge Curve," Working Papers in Economics 09/13, University of Waikato.
    • Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:09/13
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    File URL: https://repec.its.waikato.ac.nz/wai/econwp/0913.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rebecca Craigie & David Gillmore & Nicolas Groshenny, 2012. "Matching workers with jobs:how well is the New Zealand labour market doing?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 75, pages 3-12, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Beveridge curve; regime-switching; New Zealand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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