IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ssa/lemwps/2004-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Towards an Evolutionary Interpretation of Aggregate Labor Market Regularities

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Dosi
  • Giorgio Fagiolo
  • Roberto Gabriele

Abstract

Three well-known aggregate regularities (i.e. Beveridge, Wage, and Okun's curves) seem to provide a quite complete picture of the interplay between labor market macro-dynamics and business cycle. Nevertheless, existing theoretical literature still lacks micro-founded models which are able to jointly account for these three crucial stylized facts. In this paper, we present an agent-based, evolutionary, model trying to formalize from the bottom up individual behaviors and interactions in both product and labor markets. We describe as endogenous processes both vacancy and wage setting, as well as matching and bargaining, demand and price formation. Firms enjoy labor productivity improvements (technological progress) and are selected on the base of their revealed competitiveness (which is also affected by their hiring- and wage-setting behaviors). Simulations show that the model is able to robustly reproduce Beveridge, Wage and Okun's curves under quite broad behavioral and institutional settings. Moreover, the system generates endogenously an Okun's coefficient greater than one even if individual firms employ production functions exhibiting constant returns to labor. Montecarlo simulations also indicate that statistically detectable shifts in Okun's and Beveridge curves emerge as the result of changes in institutional, behavioral, and technological parameters. Finally, the model generates quite sharp predictions about how system parameters affect aggregate performance (i.e. average GDP growth) and its volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Roberto Gabriele, 2004. "Towards an Evolutionary Interpretation of Aggregate Labor Market Regularities," LEM Papers Series 2004/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2004/02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lem.sssup.it/WPLem/files/2004-02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, April.
    3. Christopher A. Pissarides & Barbara Petrongolo, 2001. "Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 390-431, June.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    5. Masanao Aoki, 2003. "A Simple Quantity Adjustment Model of Economic Fluctuations and Growth," UCLA Economics Online Papers 232, UCLA Department of Economics.
    6. Giovanni Dosi & Richard R. Nelson, 2000. "An Introduction to Evolutionary Theories in Economics," Chapters, in: Innovation, Organization and Economic Dynamics, chapter 11, pages 327-346, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Prachowny, Martin F J, 1993. "Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 331-336, May.
    8. David Card, 1995. "The Wage Curve: A Review," Working Papers 722, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    9. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    10. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1994. "Growth and Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(3), pages 477-494.
    11. Tesfatsion, Leigh, 2001. "Structure, behavior, and market power in an evolutionary labor market with adaptive search," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 419-457, March.
    12. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-666, September.
    13. Ricardo Lagos, 2000. "An Alternative Approach to Search Frictions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 851-873, October.
    14. Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Peter Flaschel, 2003. "Wage and Price Phillips Curves," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 128, Royal Economic Society.
    15. Michèle Belot & Jan C. van Ours, 2004. "Does the recent success of some OECD countries in lowering their unemployment rates lie in the clever design of their labor market reforms?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 621-642, October.
    16. Melanie Cao & Shouyong Shi, 2000. "Coordination, matching, and wages," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 1009-1033, November.
    17. Anton B. T. M. Van Schaik & Henri L. F. De Groot, 1998. "Unemployment and Endogenous Growth," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 12(2), pages 189-219, July.
    18. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & David Jestaz & Edmund S. Phelps & Gylfi Zoega, 2000. "Roots of the Recent Recoveries: Labor Reforms or Private Sector Forces?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 237-311.
    19. Anthony E. Smith & Yves Zenou, 2003. "A Discrete-Time Stochastic Model of Job Matching," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 54-79, January.
    20. David Card & Dean Hyslop, 1997. "Does Inflation "Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market"?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 71-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Anthony E. Smith & Yves Zenou, 2003. "A Discrete-Time Stochastic Model of Job Matching," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 54-79, January.
    22. Tesfatsion, Leigh, 1995. "How Economists Can Get Alife," Economic Reports 18196, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    23. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 1997. "Aggregation and the Microfoundations of Dynamic Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288008.
    24. Benoit Julien & John Kennes & Ian King, 2000. "Bidding for Labor," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(4), pages 619-649, October.
    25. Peter Flaschel & Göran Kauermann & Willi Semmler, 2007. "Testing Wage And Price Phillips Curves For The United States," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 550-581, November.
    26. van Ours, Jan C. & Belot, Michèle, 2000. "Does the Recent Success of some OECD Countries in Lowering their Unemployment Rates lie in the Clever Design of their Labour Ma," CEPR Discussion Papers 2492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. repec:bla:scandj:v:92:y:1990:i:2:p:215-35 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Oliver Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1989. "The Beveridge Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 1-76.
    29. Hoyt Bleakley & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1997. "Shifts in the Beveridge Curve, job matching, and labor market dynamics," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 3-19.
    30. Frank Hahn & Robert Solow, 1997. "A Critical Essay on Modern Macroeconomic Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026258154x, April.
    31. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    32. Joshua M. Epstein & Robert L. Axtell, 1996. "Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262550253, April.
    33. Michael Woodford, 1994. "Structural Slumps," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1784-1815, December.
    34. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    35. Sydney Winter & Giovanni Dosi, 2000. "Interpreting Economic Change: Evolution, Structures and Games," LEM Papers Series 2000/08, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    36. Kenneth Burdett & Shouyong Shi & Randall Wright, 2001. "Pricing and Matching with Frictions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 1060-1085, October.
    37. David Card, 1995. "The Wage Curve: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 285-299, June.
    38. O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Labor Economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    39. Clifford L. F. Attfield & Brian Silverstone, 1997. "Okun's Coefficient: A Comment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 326-329, May.
    40. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
    41. Peters, Michael, 1991. "Ex Ante Price Offers in Matching Games Non-steady States," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1425-1454, September.
    42. repec:bla:econom:v:58:y:1991:i:231:p:279-97 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Richiardi, 2004. "A Search Model Of Unemployment And Firm Dynamics," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 203-221.
    2. Juan Manuel Larrosa, 2016. "Agentes computacionales y análisis económico," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 18(34), pages 87-113, January-J.
    3. G. Fagiolo & G. Dosi & R. Gabriele, 2004. "Matching, Bargaining, And Wage Setting In An Evolutionary Model Of Labor Market And Output Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Roberto Leombruni & Matteo Richiardi (ed.), Industry And Labor Dynamics The Agent-Based Computational Economics Approach, chapter 5, pages 59-89, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Peter Hans Matthews, 2004. "Who is Post-Walrasian Man?," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0412, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
    5. Sandra Tavares Silva & Aurora A.C. Teixeira, 2006. "An evolutionary model of firms' institutional behavior focusing on labor decisions," FEP Working Papers 227, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    6. Dan Farhat, 2011. "Bookworms versus Party Animals: An Artificial Labor Market with Human and Social Capital Accumulation," Working Papers 1103, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised May 2011.
    7. Moreno Baruffini, 2013. "An agent-based simulation of the Swiss labour market : an alternative for the labour market policy evaluation," ERSA conference papers ersa13p216, European Regional Science Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matteo Richiardi, 2006. "Toward a Non-Equilibrium Unemployment Theory," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 135-160, February.
    2. Anthony E. Smith & Yves Zenou, 2003. "A Discrete-Time Stochastic Model of Job Matching," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 54-79, January.
    3. Dosi, G. & Pereira, M.C. & Roventini, A. & Virgillito, M.E., 2017. "When more flexibility yields more fragility: The microfoundations of Keynesian aggregate unemployment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 162-186.
    4. Anthony E. Smith & Yves Zenou, 2003. "A Discrete-Time Stochastic Model of Job Matching," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 54-79, January.
    5. Rogerson, Richard & Shimer, Robert, 2011. "Search in Macroeconomic Models of the Labor Market," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 7, pages Pages: 61, Elsevier.
    6. Neugart, Michael, 2006. "Labor market policy evaluation with an agent-based model," MPRA Paper 4726, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Neugart, Michael, 2008. "Labor market policy evaluation with ACE," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 418-430, August.
    8. Richard Rogerson & Robert Shimer & Randall Wright, 2004. "Search-Theoretic Models of the Labor Market-A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10655, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Víctor M. Montuenga‐Gómez & José M. Ramos‐Parreño, 2005. "Reconciling the Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 735-765, December.
    10. Costain, James S. & Reiter, Michael, 2008. "Business cycles, unemployment insurance, and the calibration of matching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1120-1155, April.
    11. G. Fagiolo & G. Dosi & R. Gabriele, 2004. "Matching, Bargaining, And Wage Setting In An Evolutionary Model Of Labor Market And Output Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Roberto Leombruni & Matteo Richiardi (ed.), Industry And Labor Dynamics The Agent-Based Computational Economics Approach, chapter 5, pages 59-89, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Alfonso Arpaia & Gilles Mourre, 2012. "Institutions And Performance In European Labour Markets: Taking A Fresh Look At Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 1-41, February.
    13. Jean Farès, 2002. "Does Micro Evidence Support the Wage Phillips Curve in Canada?," Staff Working Papers 02-4, Bank of Canada.
    14. Calvo-Armengol, Antoni & Zenou, Yves, 2005. "Job matching, social network and word-of-mouth communication," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 500-522, May.
    15. Stephen Nickell, 2003. "A Picture of European Unemployment: Success and Failure," CEP Discussion Papers dp0577, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    16. Nickell, Stephen & Nunziata, Luca & Ochel, Wolfgang & Quintini, Glenda, 2001. "The Beveridge curve, unemployment and wages in the OECD from the 1960s to the 1990s - preliminary version," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20113, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Jakob B. Madsen, 2009. "The Dynamics Of Labour'S Income Shares And The Wage Curve–Phillips Curve Controversy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 45-72, February.
    18. Brown, Alessio & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis, 2015. "An Incentive Theory Of Matching," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 643-668, April.
    19. Patrick A. Puhani, 2000. "On the Identification of Relative Wage Rigidity Dynamics," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 343, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    20. Yashiv, Eran, 2007. "Labor search and matching in macroeconomics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1859-1895, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor Markets; Dynamics; Aggregate Regularities; Beveridge Curve; Okun Curve; Wage Curve; Matching Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2004/02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/labssit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.