IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/usg/dp2007/2007-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Targeting Labour Market Programmes - Results from a Randomized Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Stefanie Behncke
  • Markus Frölich
  • Michael Lechner

Abstract

We evaluate a randomized experiment of a statistical support system developed to assist caseworkers in Swiss employment offices in choosing appropriate active labour market programmes for their unemployed clients. This statistical support system predicted the labour market outcome for each programme and thereby suggested an 'optimal' labour market programme for each unemployed person. The support system was piloted in several employment offices. In those pilot offices, half of the caseworkers used the system and the other half acted as control group. The allocation of the caseworkers to treatment and control group was random. The experiment was designed such that caseworkers retained full discretion about the choice of active labour market programmes, and the evaluation results showed that caseworkers largely ignored the statistical support system. This indicates that stronger incentives are needed for caseworkers to comply with statistical profiling and targeting systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2007. "Targeting Labour Market Programmes - Results from a Randomized Experiment," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007 2007-37, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:dp2007:2007-37
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ux-tauri.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/dp2007/DP-37-Be.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bell, Stephen H. & Orr, Larry L., 2002. "Screening (and creaming?) applicants to job training programs: the AFDC homemaker-home health aide demonstrations," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 279-301, April.
    2. repec:mpr:mprres:3005 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner & Heidi Steiger, 2003. "Statistically Assisted Programme Selection - International Experiences and Potential Benefits for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(III), pages 311-331, September.
    4. Nicola Persico & Petra Todd, 2006. "Generalising the Hit Rates Test for Racial Bias in Law Enforcement, With an Application to Vehicle Searches in Wichita," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(515), pages 351-367, November.
    5. Rafael Lalive & Jan C. van Ours & Josef Zweimüller, 2005. "The Effect Of Benefit Sanctions On The Duration Of Unemployment," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1386-1417, December.
    6. Lechner, Michael & Smith, Jeffrey, 2007. "What is the value added by caseworkers?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 135-151, April.
    7. S. A. Murphy, 2003. "Optimal dynamic treatment regimes," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(2), pages 331-355, May.
    8. William C. Horrace & Peter Schmidt, 2000. "Multiple comparisons with the best, with economic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 1-26.
    9. Manski, Charles F., 2000. "Identification problems and decisions under ambiguity: Empirical analysis of treatment response and normative analysis of treatment choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 415-442, April.
    10. Christopher J. O'Leary & Paul T. Decker & Stephen A. Wandner, 2002. "Targeting Reemployment Bonuses," Book chapters authored by Upjohn Institute researchers, in: Stephen A. Wandner & Randall W. Eberts & Christopher J. O'Leary (ed.), Targeting Employment Services, chapter 6, pages 161-182, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    11. Robert Moffitt, 2006. "Welfare work Requirements with Paternalistic Government Preferences," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(515), pages 441-458, November.
    12. Staghøj, Jonas & Svarer, Michael & Rosholm, Michael, 2007. "A Statistical Programme Assignment Model," IZA Discussion Papers 3165, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Fredriksson, Peter & Johansson, Per, 2002. "Program evaluation and random program starts," Working Paper Series 2003:1, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    14. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1221-1246, July.
    15. Nicola Persico & Petra E. Todd, 2005. "Passenger Profiling, Imperfect Screening, and Airport Security," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 127-131, May.
    16. Christopher J. O’Leary & Paul T. Decke & Stephen A. Wandner, 2005. "Cost-Effectiveness of Targeted Reemployment Bonuses," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(1).
    17. Randall W. Eberts & Christopher J. O'Leary, 2003. "A Frontline Decision Support System for Georgia Career Centers," Book chapters authored by Upjohn Institute researchers, in: Joshua Riley & Aquila Branch & Stephen Wandner & Wayne Gordon (ed.),A Compilation of Selected Papers from the Employment and Training Administration's 2003 Biennial National Research Conference, ETA Occasional Paper 20, pages 80-129, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    18. Manski, Charles F., 2007. "Minimax-regret treatment choice with missing outcome data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 105-115, July.
    19. Bryson, Alex & Kasparova, Diana, 2003. "Profiling benefit claimants in Britain: a feasibility study," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4991, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Randall W. Eberts & Christopher J. O'Leary & Kelly DeRango, 2002. "A Frontline Decision Support System for One-Stop Centers," Book chapters authored by Upjohn Institute researchers, in: Randall W. Eberts & Christopher J. O'Leary & Stephen A. Wandner (ed.), Targeting Employment Services, chapter 12, pages 337-379, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    21. Mark C. Berger & Dan Black & Jeffrey Smith, 2000. "Evaluating Profiling as a Means of Allocating Government Services," University of Western Ontario, Departmental Research Report Series 200018, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    22. Markus Frölich, 2006. "Statistical treatment choice: an application to active labour market programmes," CeMMAP working papers CWP24/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    23. Dehejia, Rajeev H., 2005. "Program evaluation as a decision problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1-2), pages 141-173.
    24. Arulampalam, W. & Robin A. Naylor & Jeremy P. Smith, 2002. "University of Warwick," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 9, Royal Economic Society.
    25. Charles F Manski, 2007. "Adaptive Minimax-Regret Treatment Choice, with Application to Drug Approval," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001404, David K. Levine.
    26. Randall W. Eberts & Christopher J. O'Leary & Stephen A. Wandner (ed.), 2002. "Targeting Employment Services," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number tes, November.
    27. Charles F. Manski, 2006. "Search Profiling With Partial Knowledge of Deterrence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(515), pages 385-401, November.
    28. Conny Wunsch, 2007. "Optimal Use of Labour Market Policies," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007 2007-26, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    29. Frolich, Markus, 2008. "Statistical Treatment Choice: An Application to Active Labor Market Programs," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 547-558, June.
    30. Dan A. Black & Jeffrey A. Smith & Mark C. Berger & Brett J. Noel, 2003. "Is the Threat of Reemployment Services More Effective Than the Services Themselves? Evidence from Random Assignment in the UI System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1313-1327, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Mitnik, 2008. "How do Training Programs Assign Participants to Training? Characterizing the Assignment Rules of Government Agencies for Welfare-to-Work Programs in California," Working Papers 0907, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    2. Luis Ayala & Magdalena Rodríguez, 2010. "Evaluating welfare reform under program heterogeneity and alternative measures of success," Working Papers 186, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    3. Weber, Andrea, 2008. "Individual Incentives in Program Participation: Splitting up the Process in Assignment and Enrollment," IZA Discussion Papers 3404, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Philip J. O’Connell & Seamus Mcguinness & Elish Kelly, 2012. "The Transition from Short- to Long-Term Unemployment: A Statistical Profiling Model for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 43(1), pages 135-164.
    5. Bas van der Klaauw & Sandra Vriend, 2015. "A Nonparametric Method for Predicting Survival Probabilities," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-126/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Bolhaar, Jonneke & Ketel, Nadine & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2020. "Caseworker's discretion and the effectiveness of welfare-to-work programs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    7. Bhattacharya, Debopam & Dupas, Pascaline, 2012. "Inferring welfare maximizing treatment assignment under budget constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 168-196.
    8. Djebbari, Habiba & Smith, Jeffrey, 2008. "Heterogeneous impacts in PROGRESA," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 64-80, July.
    9. Staghøj, Jonas & Svarer, Michael & Rosholm, Michael, 2007. "A Statistical Programme Assignment Model," IZA Discussion Papers 3165, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Pierre Koning, 2009. "The effectiveness of Public Employment Service workers in the Netherlands," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 393-409, October.
    11. Assadi, Anahita & Lundin, Martin, 2015. "Tenure and street-level bureaucrats: how assessment tools are used at the frontline of the public sector," Working Paper Series 2015:19, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    12. Uri Shalit, 2022. "Commentary on “Causal Decision Making and Causal Effect Estimation Are Not the Same…and Why It Matters”," INFORMS Joural on Data Science, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 19-20, April.
    13. Christopher J. O'Leary & Salomon Orellana & Kevin Doyle & Randall W. Eberts & Ben Damerow & Amy Myers & Kenneth Kline & Anna Wilcoxson & Beth C. Truesdale & Scott Powell, 2023. "Predictive Analytics Supporting Labor Market Success: A Career Explorer for Job Seekers and Workforce Professionals in Michigan," Upjohn Working Papers 23-391, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    14. Jonathan M.V. Davis & Sara B. Heller, 2017. "Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs," NBER Working Papers 23443, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Jonas Staghøj & Michael Svarer & Michael Rosholm, 2010. "Choosing the Best Training Programme: Is there a Case for Statistical Treatment Rules?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(2), pages 172-201, April.
    16. Mira Bierbaum & Eleonora E M Nillesen, 2021. "Sustaining the integrity of the threatened self: A cluster-randomised trial among social assistance applicants in the Netherlands," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21, June.
    17. Reinhard Hujer, 2011. "Mikroökonometrie und Kausalität: Zur Bedeutung arbeitsmarktpolitischer Evaluationsstudien," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(1), pages 5-18, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Markus Frölich, 2006. "Statistical treatment choice: an application to active labour market programmes," CeMMAP working papers CWP24/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Lechner, Michael & Smith, Jeffrey, 2007. "What is the value added by caseworkers?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 135-151, April.
    3. Bas van der Klaauw & Sandra Vriend, 2015. "A Nonparametric Method for Predicting Survival Probabilities," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-126/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Staghøj, Jonas & Svarer, Michael & Rosholm, Michael, 2007. "A Statistical Programme Assignment Model," IZA Discussion Papers 3165, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Doerr, Annabelle & Strittmatter, Anthony, 2014. "Assignment Mechanisms, Selection Criteria, and the Effectiveness of Training Programs," Economics Working Paper Series 1421, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, revised May 2017.
    6. Oscar Mitnik, 2008. "How do Training Programs Assign Participants to Training? Characterizing the Assignment Rules of Government Agencies for Welfare-to-Work Programs in California," Working Papers 0907, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    7. Jonas Staghøj & Michael Svarer & Michael Rosholm, 2010. "Choosing the Best Training Programme: Is there a Case for Statistical Treatment Rules?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(2), pages 172-201, April.
    8. Stoye, Jörg, 2012. "Minimax regret treatment choice with covariates or with limited validity of experiments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 138-156.
    9. Michael C. Knaus & Michael Lechner & Anthony Strittmatter, 2022. "Heterogeneous Employment Effects of Job Search Programs: A Machine Learning Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(2), pages 597-636.
    10. Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner & Heidi Steiger, 2003. "Statistically Assisted Programme Selection - International Experiences and Potential Benefits for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(III), pages 311-331, September.
    11. Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2006. "Aktive Arbeitsmarktpolitik in Deutschland und der Schweiz: eine Gegenüberstellung," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(3), pages 118-154.
    12. Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2006. "Statistical Assistance for Programme Selection - For a Better Targeting of Active Labour Market Policies in Switzerland," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 4(2), pages 61-68, 07.
    13. Bhattacharya, Debopam & Dupas, Pascaline, 2012. "Inferring welfare maximizing treatment assignment under budget constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 168-196.
    14. Marco Caliendo & Reinhard Hujer & Stephan Thomsen, 2008. "Identifying effect heterogeneity to improve the efficiency of job creation schemes in Germany," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(9), pages 1101-1122.
    15. Timothy Christensen & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2022. "Optimal Decision Rules when Payoffs are Partially Identified," Papers 2204.11748, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    16. Garbero, Alessandra & Sakos, Grayson & Cerulli, Giovanni, 2023. "Towards data-driven project design: Providing optimal treatment rules for development projects," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. Toru Kitagawa & Sokbae Lee & Chen Qiu, 2022. "Treatment Choice with Nonlinear Regret," Papers 2205.08586, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    18. Timothy Christensen & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2020. "Robust Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 20-038, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
      • Timothy Christensen & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2020. "Robust Forecasting," Papers 2011.03153, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    19. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Econometrics for Decision Making: Building Foundations Sketched by Haavelmo and Wald," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2827-2853, November.
    20. Körtner, John & Bonoli, Giuliano, 2021. "Predictive Algorithms in the Delivery of Public Employment Services," SocArXiv j7r8y, Center for Open Science.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Profiling; active labour market programmes; ALMP; statistical treatment rules; unemployment; public employment services;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usg:dp2007:2007-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joerg Baumberger (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vwasgch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.