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A Statistical Profiling Model of Long-Term Unemployment Risk in Ireland

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Listed:
  • O'Connell, Philip J.
  • McGuinness, Seamus
  • Kelly, Elish

Abstract

This paper develops a statistical profiling model of long-term unemployment risk in Ireland using a combination of administrative data and information gathered from a unique questionnaire that was issued to all jobseekers making a social welfare claim between September and December 2006 who were then tracked for eighteen months. We find that factors such as a recent history of long-term unemployment, advanced age, number of children, relatively low levels of education, literacy/numeracy problems, location in urban areas, lack of personal transport, low rates of recent labour market engagement, spousal earnings and geographic location all significantly impact the likelihood of remaining unemployed for 12 months or more. While the predicted probability distribution for males was found to be relatively normal, the female distribution was bimodal, indicating that larger proportions of females were at risk of falling into long-term unemployment. We find evidence that community based employment schemes for combating long-term unemployment have little effect as participants re-entering the register typically experience extended durations. Finally, we argue that the adoption of an unemployment profiling system will result in both equity and efficiency gains to Public Employment Services.

Suggested Citation

  • O'Connell, Philip J. & McGuinness, Seamus & Kelly, Elish, 2010. "A Statistical Profiling Model of Long-Term Unemployment Risk in Ireland," Papers WP345, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp345
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner & Heidi Steiger, 2003. "Statistically Assisted Programme Selection - International Experiences and Potential Benefits for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(III), pages 311-331, September.
    2. Lechner, Michael & Smith, Jeffrey, 2007. "What is the value added by caseworkers?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 135-151, April.
    3. Stefanie Behncke & Markus Frölich & Michael Lechner, 2006. "Statistical Assistance for Programme Selection - For a Better Targeting of Active Labour Market Policies in Switzerland," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 4(2), pages 61-68, 07.
    4. Fahr, René & Sunde, Uwe, 2006. "Did the Hartz Reforms Speed-Up Job Creation? A Macro-Evaluation Using Empirical Matching Functions," IZA Discussion Papers 2470, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Bryson, Alex & Kasparova, Diana, 2003. "Profiling benefit claimants in Britain: a feasibility study," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4991, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Mark C. Berger & Dan Black & Jeffrey Smith, 2000. "Evaluating Profiling as a Means of Allocating Government Services," University of Western Ontario, Departmental Research Report Series 200018, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. ESRI: Profiling Long-Term Unemployment Risk
      by Liam Delaney in Geary Behaviour Centre on 2011-01-17 07:23:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Garrouste, Christelle & Kozovska, Kornelia & Arjona Perez, Elena, 2010. "Education and Long-Term Unemployment," MPRA Paper 25073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip J., 2011. "Transitions to Long-Term Unemployment Risk Among Young People: Evidence from Ireland," Papers WP394, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Loxha, Artan & Morgandi, Matteo, 2014. "Profiling the unemployed : a review of OECD experiences and implications for emerging economics," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 91051, The World Bank.
    4. Rosna Awang-Hashim & Hock Eam Lim & Bidin Yatim & Tengku Faekah Tengku Ariffin & Ainol Madziah Zubairi & Haniza Yon & Omar Osman, 2015. "Estimating A Prediction Model For The Early Identification Of Low Employability Graduates In Malaysia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 60(04), pages 1-22.

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    Keywords

    Ireland/Long-term Unemployment/risk/Statistical Profiling/children/transport/employment;

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