IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unm/umagsb/2020024.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

One Belt, One Road, One Way?

Author

Listed:
  • Mau, Karsten

    (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Macro, International & Labour Economics)

  • Seuren, Rosalie

Abstract

We analyze the trade effects of a new unfolding transport infrastructure in connection with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Using panel data for the years 1996-2018, featuring 27 exporting countries and 96 industries, we exploit variation in the timing and number of railway connections to estimate whether European countries benefit from increased export revenues and product variety of their shipments to China. We find that both increase and that also indirectly connected countries benefit. Using additional data on the mode of transport, we find that industries with intermediate time-sensitivity appear to increase their utilization of rail-freight to China the most and confirm that the overall increase in exports is driven by these industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mau, Karsten & Seuren, Rosalie, 2020. "One Belt, One Road, One Way?," Research Memorandum 024, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    • Handle: RePEc:unm:umagsb:2020024
    DOI: 10.26481/umagsb.2020024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cris.maastrichtuniversity.nl/ws/files/52564796/RM20024.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26481/umagsb.2020024?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dave Donaldson, 2018. "Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 899-934, April.
    2. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    3. Liu, Xiaotong & Zhang, Kai & Chen, Bokui & Zhou, Jun & Miao, Lixin, 2018. "Analysis of logistics service supply chain for the One Belt and One Road initiative of China," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 23-39.
    4. Thomas Chaney, 2018. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: An Explanation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(1), pages 150-177.
    5. Simeon Djankov & Caroline Freund & Cong S. Pham, 2010. "Trading on Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 166-173, February.
    6. Bougheas, Spiros & Demetriades, Panicos O. & Morgenroth, Edgar L. W., 1999. "Infrastructure, transport costs and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 169-189, February.
    7. David L. Hummels & Georg Schaur, 2013. "Time as a Trade Barrier," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2935-2959, December.
    8. Paul Tae-Woo Lee & Zhi-Hua Hu & Sang-Jeong Lee & Kyoung-Suk Choi & Sung-Ho Shin, 2018. "Research trends and agenda on the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative with a focus on maritime transport," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 282-300, April.
    9. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3pucspchqi8kcpk743av62v2va is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Simone Bertoli & Michaël Goujon & Olivier Santoni, 2016. "The CERDI-seadistance database," Working Papers halshs-01288748, HAL.
    12. Michael E. Waugh, 2010. "International Trade and Income Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2093-2124, December.
    13. Prem Chhetri & Mathews Nkhoma & Konrad Peszynski & Anjali Chhetri & Paul Tae-Woo Lee, 2018. "Global logistics city concept: a cluster-led strategy under the belt and road initiative," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 319-335, April.
    14. Shao, Zeng-Zhen & Ma, Zu-Jun & Sheu, Jiuh-Biing & Gao, H. Oliver, 2018. "Evaluation of large-scale transnational high-speed railway construction priority in the belt and road region," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 40-57.
    15. Ciani, Andrea & Mau, Karsten, 2020. "When Time Matters: Eastern Europe's Response to Chinese Competition," Research Memorandum 007, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    16. Lingge Zhang & Meifeng Luo & Dong Yang & Kevin Li, 2018. "Impacts of trade liberalization on Chinese economy with Belt and Road initiative," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 301-318, April.
    17. Yuan Li & Kierstin Bolton & Theo Westphal, 2018. "The effect of the New Silk Road railways on aggregate trade volumes between China and Europe," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 275-292, July.
    18. Baniya, Suprabha & Rocha, Nadia & Ruta, Michele, 2020. "Trade effects of the New Silk Road: A gravity analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    19. David Hummels & Alexandre Skiba, 2004. "Shipping the Good Apples Out? An Empirical Confirmation of the Alchian-Allen Conjecture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1384-1402, December.
    20. David Hummels, 2007. "Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 131-154, Summer.
    21. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    22. Yuan Li & Hans-Jörg Schmerer, 2017. "Trade and the New Silk Road: opportunities, challenges, and solutions," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 205-213, July.
    23. Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    24. Yang, Dong & Jiang, Liping & Ng, Adolf K.Y., 2018. "One Belt one Road, but several routes: A case study of new emerging trade corridors connecting the Far East to Europe," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 190-204.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karsten Mau & Rosalie Seuren, 2023. "One belt, one road, one way? Where European exporters benefit from the new silkroad," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 257-297, May.
    2. Jackson, Karen & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2021. "Belt and road: The China dream?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Estimating the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies within structural gravity models," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 376-409, February.
    4. Elisaveta Archanskaia & Guillaume Daudin, 2012. "Heterogeneity and the Distance Puzzle," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2012-17, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    5. Bailey, Michael & Gupta, Abhinav & Hillenbrand, Sebastian & Kuchler, Theresa & Richmond, Robert & Stroebel, Johannes, 2021. "International trade and social connectedness," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Umana-Dajud, Camilo, 2019. "Do visas hinder international trade in goods?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 106-126.
    7. Guo, Yibei & Dong, Baomin, 2021. "Railway and trade in modern China: Evidence from the 1930s," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Asturias, Jose, 2020. "Endogenous transportation costs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    9. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Edouard Schaal, 2020. "Optimal Transport Networks in Spatial Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1411-1452, July.
    10. de Soyres, François & Mulabdic, Alen & Ruta, Michele, 2020. "Common transport infrastructure: A quantitative model and estimates from the Belt and Road Initiative," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    11. Agnosteva, Delina E. & Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2019. "Intra-national trade costs: Assaying regional frictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 32-50.
    12. Wessel, Jan, 2019. "Evaluating the transport-mode-specific trade effects of different transport infrastructure types," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 42-57.
    13. Álvarez, Inmaculada C. & Barbero, Javier & Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Zofío, José L., 2018. "Does Institutional Quality Matter for Trade? Institutional Conditions in a Sectoral Trade Framework," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 72-87.
    14. Raveh, Ohad & Reshef, Ariell, 2016. "Capital imports composition, complementarities, and the skill premium in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 183-206.
    15. Takumi Naito, 2016. "Aid for Trade and Global Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 1178-1201, November.
    16. de Soyres, François & Mulabdic, Alen & Murray, Siobhan & Rocha, Nadia & Ruta, Michele, 2019. "How much will the Belt and Road Initiative reduce trade costs?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 151-164.
    17. Chen, Natalie & Juvenal, Luciana, 2018. "Quality and the Great Trade Collapse," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 59-76.
    18. Anderson, James E. & Borchert, Ingo & Mattoo, Aaditya & Yotov, Yoto V., 2018. "Dark costs, missing data: Shedding some light on services trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 193-214.
    19. Emanuel Ornelas & Marcos Ritel, 2020. "The not‐so‐generalised effects of the Generalized System of Preferences," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1809-1840, July.
    20. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Yotov, Yoto V., 2021. "From theory to policy with gravitas: A solution to the mystery of the excess trade balances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unm:umagsb:2020024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Andrea Willems or Leonne Portz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/meteonl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.