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Belt and road: The China dream?

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  • Jackson, Karen
  • Shepotylo, Oleksandr

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in terms of changes in trade costs on trade and consumer welfare in China, the EU, and the rest of the World. We employ a general equilibrium structural gravity approach and conduct a counterfactual analysis. Our key findings are as follows: (i) China and the EU are expected to make substantial gains from the BRI due to reductions in transport costs; (ii) signing and implementing a deep FTA between China and the EU is equivalent to transport cost reductions of 15–20%; (iii) the joint policy of the BRI and FTA is super-additive, magnifying the gains from the separate policies; and (iv) where transport cost reductions are 20% or more, the potential negative effect of the China-US trade war on China is more than compensated for by the BRI initiative. Our results provide evidence that the BRI has the potential to deliver significant welfare gains, particularly if combined with other trade integration schemes, and to counterbalance aggressive trade policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jackson, Karen & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2021. "Belt and road: The China dream?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:67:y:2021:i:c:s1043951x21000225
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101604
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    2. Yue Fu & Long Xue & Yixin Yan & Yao Pan & Xiaofang Wu & Ying Shao, 2021. "Energy Network Embodied in Trade along the Belt and Road: Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-29, September.
    3. Khan, Jamal & Li, Yuan & Girardin, Eric, 2022. "Is a clash coming when trade and climate meet at the border? The impact of the EU's carbon border adjustment on China's belt and road initiative," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 112-124.
    4. Damoah, Kaku Attah & Giovannetti, Giorgia & Marvasi, Enrico, 2022. "Do country centrality and similarity to China matter in the allocation of belt and road projects?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 660-674.
    5. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Kenku, Oluwademilade T. & Ajayi, Oluwafisayo F., 2023. "China's technological spillover effect on the energy efficiency of the BRI countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    6. Karen Jackson, 2021. "An analysis of the trade policy review of the European Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(12), pages 3482-3491, December.
    7. Yu Chen & Yan Zhang & Lin Zhao, 2022. "Export creation of the Belt and Road Initiative: “Give‐them‐a‐fish” or “Teach‐them‐to‐fish”?," International Studies of Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 531-549, December.
    8. Li, Juncheng & Qin, Xiuting & Tang, Jian & Yang, Lu, 2022. "Foreign trade and innovation sustainability: Evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Lu, Shuai & Chen, Ning & Zhou, Wei & Li, Shouwei, 2024. "Impact of the belt and road initiative on trade status and FDI attraction: A local and global network perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1468-1495.
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