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The effect of the New Silk Road railways on aggregate trade volumes between China and Europe

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  • Yuan Li
  • Kierstin Bolton
  • Theo Westphal

Abstract

‘One Belt One Road’ is an extensive and complex initiative whose potential effect and influence are still currently pending for answers. This paper addresses the following research question: What is the effect of the New Silk Road intercontinental railways on the trade between China and its trading partners in Central Asia and Europe? We focus on nine railway lines connecting Europe and China, which started operations between 2011 and 2015. The countries’ trade patterns with railway connections to China are then compared to the countries without railway connections to China. We find the intercontinental railways have a positive effect on China’s exports to its trading partners in Central Asia and Europe, especially concerning exports of manufactured goods, machinery and transport equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles. Moreover, the intercontinental railways have a positive effect on China’s imports of food and live animals from its trading partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan Li & Kierstin Bolton & Theo Westphal, 2018. "The effect of the New Silk Road railways on aggregate trade volumes between China and Europe," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 275-292, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:16:y:2018:i:3:p:275-292
    DOI: 10.1080/14765284.2018.1453720
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    Cited by:

    1. Sadam Hussain & Muhammad Shahid Akram & Abdul Ghaffar & Yasmeen Qamar & Waqar Ahmad, 2019. "Impact of Foreign Investment, Labor Force and Interest Rate on Economic Growth: A Case of Pakistan (Under CPEC Project Contribution Countries)," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(4), pages 369-377, December.
    2. Mau, Karsten & Seuren, Rosalie, 2020. "One Belt, One Road, One Way?," Research Memorandum 024, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    3. Nugent, Jeffrey B. & Lu, Jiaxuan, 2021. "China's outward foreign direct investment in the Belt and Road Initiative: What are the motives for Chinese firms to invest?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Jiajia Li & Abbas Ali Chandio & Yucong Liu, 2020. "Trade Impacts on Embodied Carbon Emissions—Evidence from the Bilateral Trade between China and Germany," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-19, July.
    5. Beáta Sz. G. Pató & Gábor Heizler & Márk Herczeg & Gábor Bálint Pató & Al Fauzi Rahmat & Lóránt Dénes Dávid & Imre Varga & Ágnes Csiszárik-Kocsir, 2023. "The Importance of the New Silk Road in the Hungarian Automotive Supply Chain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-14, November.
    6. Ling Fang & Martin Kleimann & Yuan Li & Hans-Jörg Schmerer, 2019. "The Implications of the New Silk Road Railways on Local Development," CESifo Working Paper Series 7923, CESifo.
    7. Jackson, Karen & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2021. "Belt and road: The China dream?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. Xiao Wang & Jiaojiao Li & Jingming Shi & Jia Li & Jianxu Liu & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2023. "Does China–Europe Railway Express Improve Green Total Factor Productivity in China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-18, May.
    9. Fang, Ling & Kleimann, Martin & Li, Yuan & Schmerer, Hans-Jörg, 2021. "The implications of the New Silk Road Railways on local development," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Fredrik Sjöholm, 2023. "The Belt and Road Initiative: Economic Causes and Effects," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 22(1), pages 62-81, Winter/Sp.
    11. Li, Chunying & Zhang, Jinning & Lyu, Yanwei, 2022. "Does the opening of China railway express promote urban total factor productivity? New evidence based on SDID and SDDD model," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Grimmel, Andreas & Li, Yuan, 2018. "The belt and road initiative: A hybrid model of regionalism," Working Papers on East Asian Studies 122/2018, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of East Asian Studies IN-EAST.
    13. Jiyong Chen & Dabo Chen & Aiping Yao, 2020. "Trade development between China and countries along the Belt and Road: A spatial econometric analysis based on trade competitiveness and complementarity," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 205-227, May.
    14. Lingduo Jiang & Guofeng Zhang & Hang Zhang, 2023. "The role of the Belt and Road Initiative: New opportunity for Chinese exporters?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(6), pages 1609-1647, June.
    15. Kenderdine, Tristan & Bucsky, Peter, 2021. "Middle Corridor—Policy Development and Trade Potential of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route," ADBI Working Papers 1268, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    16. Fenling Feng & Tianzuo Zhang & Chengguang Liu & Lifeng Fan, 2020. "China Railway Express Subsidy Model Based on Game Theory under “the Belt and Road” Initiative," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-16, March.
    17. Karsten Mau & Rosalie Seuren, 2023. "One belt, one road, one way? Where European exporters benefit from the new silkroad," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 257-297, May.

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