IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ucl/cepeow/24-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Automation and Employment over the Technology Life Cycle: Evidence from European Regions

Author

Listed:
  • Florencia Jaccoud

    (UNU-MERIT, United Nations University)

  • Fabien Petit

    (Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, UCL)

  • Tommaso Ciarli

    (United Nations University,UNU-MERIT and University of Sussex, SPRU)

  • Maria Savona

    (University of Sussex, SPRU)

Abstract

This paper examines the labor market implications of investment in automation over the life cycle of ICT and robot technologies from 1995 to 2017 in 163 European regions. We first identify major technological breakthroughs during this period and classify phases of acceleration and deceleration in investment. We then examine how exposure to automation technologies affects employment and wages across these different phases of their life cycle. We find that the negligible long-term impact of automation on employment conceals significant short-term positive and negative effects within phases of the technology life cycle. We also find that the negative impact of ICT investments on employment is driven by the phase of the cycle when investment decelerates (and the technology is more mature). The phases of the technology life cycles are more relevant than differences in regions' structural characteristics, such as productivity and sector specialization in explaining the impact of automation to on regional employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Florencia Jaccoud & Fabien Petit & Tommaso Ciarli & Maria Savona, 2024. "Automation and Employment over the Technology Life Cycle: Evidence from European Regions," CEPEO Working Paper Series 24-02, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Feb 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucl:cepeow:24-02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec-cepeo.ucl.ac.uk/cepeow/cepeowp24-02.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2024
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Georgios Petropoulos & David Pichler & Francesco Chiacchio, 2018. "The impact of industrial robots on EU employment and wages- A local labour market approach," Bruegel Working Papers 25186, Bruegel.
    2. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    3. Domini, Giacomo & Grazzi, Marco & Moschella, Daniele & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Threats and opportunities in the digital era: Automation spikes and employment dynamics," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Claire Lelarge & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Competing with Robots: Firm-Level Evidence from France," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 383-388, May.
    5. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    6. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum, 2014. "The Rise Of The East And The Far East: German Labor Markets And Trade Integration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(6), pages 1643-1675, December.
    7. Lee, In, 2017. "Big data: Dimensions, evolution, impacts, and challenges," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 293-303.
    8. Vona, Francesco & Consoli, Davide, 2009. "Innovation, human capital and earning distribution: towards a dynamic life-cycle approach," MPRA Paper 13032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Francesco Vona & Davide Consoli, 2015. "Innovation and skill dynamics: a life-cycle approach," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 24(6), pages 1393-1415.
    10. Giorgio Presidente, 2023. "Institutions, Holdup, and Automation," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(4), pages 831-847.
    11. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum & Nicole Woessner, 2021. "The Adjustment of Labor Markets to Robots [“Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(6), pages 3104-3153.
    12. Gerald Silverberg & Bart Verspagen, 2003. "Breaking the waves: a Poisson regression approach to Schumpeterian clustering of basic innovations," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 27(5), pages 671-693, September.
    13. Paul Lewis, 2020. "Developing Technician Skills for Innovative Industries: Theory, Evidence from the UK Life Sciences Industry, and Policy Implications," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 617-643, September.
    14. F. Etro, 2009. "The Economic Impact of Cloud Computing on Business Creation, Employment and Output in Europe. An application of the Endogenous Market Structures Approach to a GPT innovation," Review of Business and Economic Literature, Intersentia, vol. 54(2), pages 179-209, June.
    15. David H. Autor, 2015. "Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
    16. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09iak49cp9p is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2014. "Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2509-2526, August.
    18. Freeman, Chris & Louca, Francisco, 2002. "As Time Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199251056.
    19. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2015. "Untangling Trade and Technology: Evidence from Local Labour Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 621-646, May.
    20. Terry Gregory & Anna Salomons & Ulrich Zierahn, 2022. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence on the Role of Trade in Europe," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 869-906.
    21. Mansell, Robin, 2021. "Adjusting to the digital: Societal outcomes and consequences," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
    22. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    23. Michele Battisti & Christian Dustmann & Uta Schönberg, 2023. "Technological and Organizational Change and the Careers of Workers," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1551-1594.
    24. Maria Savona & Tommaso Ciarli & Ed Steinmueller & Simone Vannuccini, 2022. "The Design of Digital Automation Technologies: Implications for the Future of Work," EconPol Forum, CESifo, vol. 23(05), pages 4-10, September.
    25. Langlois, Richard N., 2003. "Cognitive comparative advantage and the organization of work: Lessons from Herbert Simon's vision of the future," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 167-187, April.
    26. Foster-McGregor, Neil & Nomaler, Önder & Verspagen, Bart, 2021. "Job Automation Risk, Economic Structure and Trade: a European Perspective," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    27. F. Etro, 2009. "The Economic Impact of Cloud Computing on Business Creation, Employment and Output in Europe. An application of the Endogenous Market Structures Approach to a GPT innovation," Review of Business and Economic Literature, Intersentia, vol. 0(2), pages 179-209, June.
    28. Antonio Andreoni & Ha-Joon Chang & Mateus Labrunie, 2021. "Natura Non Facit Saltus: Challenges and Opportunities for Digital Industrialisation Across Developing Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 33(2), pages 330-370, April.
    29. Carlota Perez, 2010. "Technological revolutions and techno-economic paradigms," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 34(1), pages 185-202, January.
    30. Mowery, David C. & Simcoe, Timothy, 2002. "Is the Internet a US invention?--an economic and technological history of computer networking," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8-9), pages 1369-1387, December.
    31. Malerba, Franco, et al, 1999. "'History-Friendly' Models of Industry Evolution: The Computer Industry," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 8(1), pages 3-40, March.
    32. Mansell, Robin, 2021. "Adjusting to the digital: societal outcomes and consequences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111571, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    33. Dirk Pilat, 2005. "The ICT Productivity Paradox: Insights from Micro Data," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2004(1), pages 37-65.
    34. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2002. "Upstairs, Downstairs: Computers and Skills on Two Floors of a Large Bank," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 55(3), pages 432-447, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Autor & Caroline Chin & Anna Salomons & Bryan Seegmiller, 2024. "New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1399-1465.
    2. Gregory, Terry & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145843, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Automation, Job Polarisation, and Structural Change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 499-535.
    4. Chen, Chinchih & Frey, Carl Benedikt & Presidente, Giorgio, 2022. "Automation or globalization? The impacts of robots and Chinese imports on jobs in the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 528-542.
    5. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Scicchitano, Sergio & Traverso, Silvio & Tundis, Enrico, 2021. "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," GLO Discussion Paper Series 802, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Jasmine Mondolo, 2022. "The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1027-1068, September.
    7. Stefan Jestl, 2022. "Industrial Robots, and Information and Communication Technology: The Employment Effects in EU Labour Markets," wiiw Working Papers 215, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    8. Heyman, Fredrik & Olsson, Martin, 2022. "Long-Run Effects of Technological Change: The Impact of Automation and Robots on Intergenerational Mobility," Working Paper Series 1451, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 29 Jun 2023.
    9. Bachmann, Ronald & Gonschor, Myrielle & Lewandowski, Piotr & Madoń, Karol, 2024. "The impact of Robots on Labour market transitions in Europe," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 422-441.
    10. Goos, Maarten & Rademakers, Emilie & Röttger, Ronja, 2021. "Routine-Biased technical change: Individual-Level evidence from a plant closure," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    11. Cortes, Matias & Lerche, Adrian & Schönberg, Uta & Tschopp, Jeanne, 2023. "Technological Change, Firm Heterogeneity and Wage Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 16070, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Colantone, Italo & Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Stanig, Piero, 2021. "The backlash of globalization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113860, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Andreas Beerli & Ronald Indergand & Johannes S. Kunz, 2023. "The supply of foreign talent: how skill-biased technology drives the location choice and skills of new immigrants," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 681-718, April.
    14. Dauth, Wolfgang, 2014. "Job polarization on local labor markets," IAB-Discussion Paper 201418, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    15. Dauth, Wolfgang & Findeisen, Sebastian & Südekum, Jens & Wößner, Nicole, 2017. "German robots - the impact of industrial robots on workers," IAB-Discussion Paper 201730, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    16. Antón, José-Ignacio & Fernández-Macías, Enrique & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2020. "Does Robotization Affect Job Quality? Evidence from European Regional Labour Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 13975, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Davide Dottori, 2021. "Robots and employment: evidence from Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 739-795, July.
    18. Falck, Oliver & Heimisch-Roecker, Alexandra & Wiederhold, Simon, 2021. "Returns to ICT skills," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    19. Arntz, Melanie & Genz, Sabrina & Gregory, Terry & Lehmer, Florian & Zierahn-Weilage, Ulrich, 2024. "De-Routinization in the Fourth Industrial Revolution - Firm-Level Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 16740, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Borsato, Andrea & Lorentz, André, 2023. "The Kaldor–Verdoorn law at the age of robots and AI," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(10).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Automation; Technology Life Cycle; Employment; Wages; ICT; Robot;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucl:cepeow:24-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jake Anders (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/epucluk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.