IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/iwhdps/52023.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Robots, occupations, and worker age: A production-unit analysis of employment

Author

Listed:
  • Deng, Liuchun
  • Müller, Steffen
  • Plümpe, Verena
  • Stegmaier, Jens

Abstract

We analyse the impact of robot adoption on employment composition using novel micro data on robot use in German manufacturing plants linked with social security records and data on job tasks. Our task-based model predicts more favourable employment effects for the least routine-task intensive occupations and for young workers, with the latter being better at adapting to change. An event-study analysis of robot adoption confirms both predictions. We do not find adverse employment effects for any occupational or age group, but churning among low-skilled workers rises sharply. We conclude that the displacement effect of robots is occupation biased but age neutral, whereas the reinstatement effect is age biased and benefits young workers most.

Suggested Citation

  • Deng, Liuchun & Müller, Steffen & Plümpe, Verena & Stegmaier, Jens, 2023. "Robots, occupations, and worker age: A production-unit analysis of employment," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:52023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/269861/1/1833077261.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. MacKinnon, James G & Magee, Lonnie, 1990. "Transforming the Dependent Variable in Regression Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(2), pages 315-339, May.
    2. Philippe Aghion & Céline Antonin & Simon Bunel & Xavier Jaravel, 2022. "Modern manufacturing capital, labor demand, and product market dynamics: Evidence from France," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03943312, HAL.
    3. Georg Graetz & Guy Michaels, 2018. "Robots at Work," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 753-768, December.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Gary W. Anderson & David N. Beede & Catherine Buffington & Eric E. Childress & Emin Dinlersoz & Lucia S. Foster & Nathan Goldschlag & John C. Haltiwanger & Zachary Kroff & Pascual Res, 2024. "Automation and the Workforce: A Firm-Level View from the 2019 Annual Business Survey," NBER Chapters, in: Technology, Productivity, and Economic Growth, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Acemoglu, Daron & Koster, Hans R.A. & Ozgen, Ceren, 2023. "Robots and Workers: Evidence from the Netherlands," IZA Discussion Papers 15997, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum & Nicole Woessner, 2021. "The Adjustment of Labor Markets to Robots [“Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(6), pages 3104-3153.
    7. David Autor & Caroline Chin & Anna Salomons & Bryan Seegmiller, 2024. "New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1399-1465.
    8. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    9. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum, 2014. "The Rise Of The East And The Far East: German Labor Markets And Trade Integration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(6), pages 1643-1675, December.
    10. Alexandra Spitz-Oener, 2006. "Technical Change, Job Tasks, and Rising Educational Demands: Looking outside the Wage Structure," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(2), pages 235-270, April.
    11. Barth, Erling & Roed, Marianne & Schone, Pal & Umblijs, Janis, 2020. "How Robots Change Within-Firm Wage Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 13605, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. P. Aubert & Eve Caroli & Muriel Roger, 2006. "New technologies, workplace organisation and the age structure of the workforce [Nouvelles technologies et nouvelles formes d'organisation du travail : quelles conséquences pour l'emploi des salari," Post-Print hal-02656040, HAL.
    13. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    14. Patrick Aubert & Eve Caroli & Muriel Roger, 2006. "New technologies, organisation and age: firm-level evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(509), pages 73-93, February.
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10051 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Bartel, Ann P & Sicherman, Nachum, 1993. "Technological Change and Retirement Decisions of Older Workers," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 162-183, January.
    17. Deng, Liuchun & Plümpe, Verena & Stegmaier, Jens, 2021. "Robot adoption at German plants," IWH Discussion Papers 19/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2021.
    18. repec:iab:iabfda:202105(en is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Chari, V V & Hopenhayn, Hugo, 1991. "Vintage Human Capital, Growth, and the Diffusion of New Technology," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1142-1165, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Deng, Liuchun & Fujio, Minako & Lin, Xin & Ota, Rui, 2023. "Labor shortage and early robotization in Japan," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    2. João Amador, 2024. "Robots in Portuguese Firms," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barth, Erling & Davis, James C. & Freeman, Richard B. & McElheran, Kristina, 2023. "Twisting the demand curve: Digitalization and the older workforce," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(2), pages 443-467.
    2. Cäcilia Lipowski, 2024. "No Teens, No Tech: How Shortages of Young Workers Hinder Firm Technology Investments," CESifo Working Paper Series 11471, CESifo.
    3. Cirillo, Valeria & Evangelista, Rinaldo & Guarascio, Dario & Sostero, Matteo, 2021. "Digitalization, routineness and employment: An exploration on Italian task-based data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    4. Konstantin Koerner & Mathilde Le Moigne, 2023. "FDI and onshore task composition: evidence from German firms with affiliates in the Czech Republic," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 57(1), pages 1-42, December.
    5. David J Deming & Kadeem Noray, 2020. "Earnings Dynamics, Changing Job Skills, and STEM Careers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(4), pages 1965-2005.
    6. Dany Bahar & Andreas Hauptmann & Cem Özgüzel & Hillel Rapoport, 2019. "Migration and Post-Conflict Reconstruction: The Effect of Returning Refugees on Export Performance in the Former Yugoslavia," Working Papers 2019-12, CEPII research center.
    7. Piotr Lewandowski & Roma Keister & Wojciech Hardy & Szymon Gorka, 2017. "Routine and ageing? The Intergenerational Divide In The Deroutinisation Of Jobs In Europe," IBS Working Papers 01/2017, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    8. David Autor & Caroline Chin & Anna Salomons & Bryan Seegmiller, 2024. "New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1399-1465.
    9. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Automation, Job Polarisation, and Structural Change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 499-535.
    10. Gregory, Terry & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145843, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Bertschek Irene & Meyer Jenny, 2009. "Do Older Workers Lower IT-Enabled Productivity?: Firm-Level Evidence from Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(2-3), pages 327-342, April.
    12. Nikolova, Milena & Cnossen, Femke & Nikolaev, Boris, 2024. "Robots, meaning, and self-determination," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    13. Cem Ozguzel, 2019. "Essays on migration and productivity [Essais sur les migrations et la productivité]," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) tel-03381203, HAL.
    14. Sauré, Philip & Seibold, Arthur & Smorodenkova, Elizaveta & Zoabi, Hosny, 2023. "Occupations Shape Retirement Across Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 18161, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Genz, Sabrina & Gregory, Terry & Janser, Markus & Lehmer, Florian & Matthes, Britta, 2021. "How Do Workers Adjust When Firms Adopt New Technologies?," IZA Discussion Papers 14626, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Albinowski, Maciej & Lewandowski, Piotr, 2024. "The impact of ICT and robots on labour market outcomes of demographic groups in Europe," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    17. Pierre-Jean Messe & Eva Moreno-Galbis & François-Charles Wolf, 2014. "Retirement intentions in the presence of technological change: Theory and evidence from France," TEPP Working Paper 2014-04, TEPP.
    18. Fabien Petit & Florencia Jaccoud & Tommaso Ciarli, 2023. "Heterogeneous Adjustments of Labor Markets to Automation Technologies," CESifo Working Paper Series 10237, CESifo.
    19. Fries, Jan, 2014. "Age and skill bias of trade liberalisation? Heterogeneous employment effects of EU Eastern Enlargement," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-113, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    20. Fernández-Macías, Enrique & Klenert, David & Antón, José-Ignacio, 2021. "Not so disruptive yet? Characteristics, distribution and determinants of robots in Europe," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 76-89.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    automation; employment; industrial robots; occupation; worker age; workforce composition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:52023. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwhhhde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.