IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2020-112.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Going Viral: A Gravity Model of Infectious Diseases and Tourism Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Serhan Cevik

Abstract

This paper develops a gravity model framework to estimate the impact of infectious diseases on bilateral tourism flows among 38,184 pairs of countries over the period 1995–2017. The results confirm that international tourism is adversely affected by disease risk, and the magnitude of this negative effect is statistically and economically significant. In the case of SARS, for example, a 10 percent rise in confirmed cases leads to a reduction of as much as 9 percent in tourist arrivals. Furthermore, while infectious diseases appear to have a smaller and statistically insignificant negative effect on tourism flows to advanced economies, the magnitude and statistical significance of the impact of infectious diseases are much greater in developing countries, where such diseases tend to be more prevalent and health infrastructure lags behind.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Serhan Cevik, 2020. "Going Viral: A Gravity Model of Infectious Diseases and Tourism Flows," IMF Working Papers 2020/112, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/112
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=49546
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Salvador Gil‐Pareja & Rafael Llorca‐Vivero & José Antonio Martínez‐Serrano, 2007. "The Effect of EMU on Tourism," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 302-312, May.
    2. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    3. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2008. "FDI as an outcome of the market for corporate control: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 2-20, January.
    4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    5. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    6. María Santana-Gallego & Francisco J. Ledesma-Rodríguez & Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez, 2010. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 25-43, March.
    7. Egger, Peter, 2000. "A note on the proper econometric specification of the gravity equation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 25-31, January.
    8. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter, 2007. "A knowledge-and-physical-capital model of international trade flows, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 278-308, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sergej Gricar & Tea Baldigara & Violeta Šugar, 2021. "Sustainable Determinants That Affect Tourist Arrival Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-24, August.
    2. Filippo Simini & Gianni Barlacchi & Massimilano Luca & Luca Pappalardo, 2021. "A Deep Gravity model for mobility flows generation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Shastri, Shruti, 2022. "The impact of infectious diseases on remittances inflows to India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 83-95.
    4. Zhenrao Cai & Dan Gao & Xin Xiao & Linguo Zhou & Chaoyang Fang, 2023. "The Flow of Green Exercise, Its Characteristics, Mechanism, and Pattern in Urban Green Space Networks: A Case Study of Nangchang, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-19, March.
    5. Stefan Goldbach & Volker Nitsch, 2022. "Covid-19 and Capital Flows: The Responses of Investors to the Responses of Governments," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 751-774, September.
    6. Valerio Della Corte & Claudio Doria & Giacomo Oddo, 2023. "The impact of COVID‐19 on international tourism flows to Italy: Evidence from mobile phone data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1378-1407, May.
    7. Malaj, Emi & Malaj, Visar, 2023. "Determinants of international tourism: Empirical evidence from three Mediterranean countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 66-72.
    8. Ioannis-Panagiotis Varzakas & Theodore Metaxas, 2024. "Pandemic and Economy: An Econometric Analysis Investigating the Impact of COVID-19 on the Global Tourism Market," Tourism and Hospitality, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-14, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sosa Andrés, Maximiliano & Nunnenkamp, Peter & Busse, Matthias, 2013. "What drives FDI from non-traditional sources? A comparative analysis of the determinants of bilateral FDI flows," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-53.
    2. Kahouli, Bassem & Maktouf, Samir, 2015. "The determinants of FDI and the impact of the economic crisis on the implementation of RTAs: A static and dynamic gravity model," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 518-529.
    3. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Vicard, Vincent, 2009. "Foreign direct investment and bilateral investment treaties: An international political perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 372-386, September.
    4. Fourie, Johan & Santana-Gallego, María, 2011. "The impact of mega-sport events on tourist arrivals," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1364-1370.
    5. Cecilio R. Tamarit Escalona & Estrella Gómez, 2011. "The euro effect on trade: evidence in gravity equations using panel cointegration techniques," Working Papers. Serie EC 2011-07, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    6. Dalila NICET-CHENAF & Eric ROUGIER, 2014. "Output Volatility And Fdi To Middle East And North African Countries: A Close-Up On The Source Countries," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 40, pages 139-165.
    7. Axel Berger & Matthias Busse & Peter Nunnenkamp & Martin Roy, 2013. "Do trade and investment agreements lead to more FDI? Accounting for key provisions inside the black box," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 247-275, June.
    8. Dalila Chenaf-Nicet & Eric Rougier, 2016. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Instability on FDI Flows: A Gravity Estimation of the Impact of Regional Integration in the Case of Euro-Mediterranean Agreements," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 145, pages 66-91.
    9. Fernando Mistura & Caroline Roulet, 2019. "The determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: Do statutory restrictions matter?," OECD Working Papers on International Investment 2019/01, OECD Publishing.
    10. Matthias Busse & Jens Königer & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2010. "FDI promotion through bilateral investment treaties: more than a bit?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(1), pages 147-177, April.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7446 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Morley, Clive & Rosselló, Jaume & Santana-Gallego, Maria, 2014. "Gravity models for tourism demand: theory and use," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-10.
    13. Valeriano Martínez-San Román & Marta Bengoa & Blanca Sánchez-Robles, 2016. "Foreign direct investment, trade integration and the home bias: evidence from the European Union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 197-229, February.
    14. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Poelhekke, Steven, 2010. "Do Natural Resources Attract FDI? Evidence from Non-Stationary Sector-Level Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 8079, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Dalila Nicet-Chenaf & Eric Rougier, 2014. "Source and host country volatility and FDI : A gravity analysis of European investment to Middle East and North Africa," Larefi Working Papers 1405, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
    16. Mariam Camarero & Laura Montolio & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "Explaining German outward FDI in the EU: a reassessment using Bayesian model averaging and GLM estimators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 487-511, February.
    17. Mark N. Harris & László Kónya & László Mátyás, 2012. "Some Stylized Facts about International Trade Flows," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 781-792, September.
    18. Zongo, Amara, 2020. "The Impact of Restrictive Measures on Bilateral FDI in OECD Countries," MPRA Paper 101929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7448 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Dalila Nicet-Chenaf & Eric Rougier & Kamel Abdellah, 2012. "FDI and macroeconomic volatility: a close-up on the source countries," Post-Print hal-00798467, HAL.
    21. Marta Bengoa & Blanca Sanchez-Robles & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2020. "Do Trade and Investment Agreements Promote Foreign Direct Investment within Latin America? Evidence from a Structural Gravity Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-32, October.
    22. Marie Daumal & Soledad Zignago, 2010. "Measure and determinants of border effects of Brazilian states," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(4), pages 735-758, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; infectious disease; yellow fever;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.