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The economic dimension of climate change impacts on tourism

Author

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  • Pedro Pintassilgo

    (University of Algarve, Portugal)

  • Jaume Rosselló

    (University of the Balearic Islands, Spain)

  • Maria Santana-Gallego

    (University of the Balearic Islands, Spain)

  • Elisabeth Valle

    (University of the Balearic Islands, Spain)

Abstract

Climate variables such as temperature and precipitation play a crucial role on tourism flows worldwide. This places tourism at the forefront of the economic sectors to be affected by climate change. In this article, we address the impacts of climate change on the arrivals of inbound tourists to Portugal, a south European country where tourism is a core economic sector. The economic dimension of the impacts, in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment, is then assessed. This is achieved by combining a world gravity model of tourism flows with an input–output model. The results show that under standard climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Portugal will experience a significant increase in temperature leading to a decrease of inbound tourism arrivals between 2.5% and 5.2%. This decrease in tourist arrivals is expected to reduce Portuguese GDP between 0.19% and 0.40%.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Pintassilgo & Jaume Rosselló & Maria Santana-Gallego & Elisabeth Valle, 2016. "The economic dimension of climate change impacts on tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(4), pages 685-698, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:22:y:2016:i:4:p:685-698
    DOI: 10.1177/1354816616654242
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Manrique-de-Lara-Peñate, Casiano & Santana Gallego, María & Valle, Elisabeth Valle, 2022. "The economic impact of global uncertainty and security threats on international tourism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
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    6. Angeliki N. Menegaki & Nicholas Tsounis & George M. Agiomirgianakis, 2022. "The economic impact of climate change (CC) on the Greek economy," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 8145-8161, June.
    7. Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Hassani, Hossein, 2022. "‘Modelling’ UK tourism demand using fashion retail sales," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    8. Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Ghodsi, Zara & Ghodsi, Mansi & Heravi, Saeed & Hassani, Hossein, 2017. "Cross country relations in European tourist arrivals," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 151-168.
    9. Xiaopeng Si & Zi Tang, 2024. "Assessment of low-carbon tourism development from multi-aspect analysis: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China," Papers 2402.11579, arXiv.org.
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