IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ube/dpvwib/dp1706.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Money Velocity and the Natural Rate of Interest

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Benati

Abstract

Since World War I, M1 velocity has been, to a close approximation, the permanent component of the short-term nominal rate. This logically implies that, under monetary regimes which cause inflation to be I(0), permanent fluctuations in M1 velocity uniquely reflect, to a close approximation, permanent shifts in the natural rate of interest. Evidence from the Euro area and several inflation-targeting countries is compatible with this notion, with velocity fluctuations being systematically strongly correlated with a Stock and Watson (1996, 1998) estimate of trend real GDP growth. I exploit this insight to estimate the natural rate of interest for the United Kingdom and Canada under inflation targeting: In either country, the natural rate has been consistently declining since the early 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Benati, 2017. "Money Velocity and the Natural Rate of Interest," Diskussionsschriften dp1706, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    • Handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp1706
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.vwiit.ch/dp/dp1706.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benati, Luca, 2007. "Drift and breaks in labor productivity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2847-2877, August.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Chen, Celia, 1996. "Testing structural stability with endogenous breakpoint A size comparison of analytic and bootstrap procedures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 221-241, January.
    3. Allan H. Meltzer, 1963. "The Demand for Money: The Evidence from the Time Series," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(3), pages 219-219.
    4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    6. Benati, Luca & Lucas, Robert E. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Weber, Warren, 2021. "International evidence on long-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 43-63.
    7. Juan Braun-Llona & Matías Braun-Llona & Ignacio Briones & José Díaz & Rolf Lüders & Gert Wagner, "undated". "Economía Chilena 1810-1995. Estadísticas Históricas," Documentos de Trabajo 187, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    8. Bruce E. Hansen, 1999. "The Grid Bootstrap And The Autoregressive Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 594-607, November.
    9. Wright, Jonathan H, 2000. "Confidence Sets for Cointegrating Coefficients Based on Stationarity Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(2), pages 211-222, April.
    10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-107 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    13. Fratianni,Michele & Spinelli,Franco, 2005. "A Monetary History of Italy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023450, September.
    14. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    15. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356, Elsevier.
    16. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060.
    17. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi, 2009. "Financial Innovation and the Transactions Demand for Cash," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 363-402, March.
    18. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    19. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    20. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    21. Muscatelli, V. Anton & Spinelli, Franco, 2000. "The long-run stability of the demand for money: Italy 1861-1996," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 717-739, June.
    22. Kieran Furlong, 2001. "The Montreal Gazette call loan rate, 1871-1907," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 165-173, February.
    23. Roberto Junguito & Hernán Rincón, 2004. "La Política Fiscal en el Siglo XX en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 318, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    24. Ronald A. Shearer & Carolyn Clark, 1984. "Canada and the Interwar Gold Standard, 1920-35: Monetary Policy without a Central Bank," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931, pages 277-310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    26. John H. Cochrane, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 241-265.
    27. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    28. Kurt G. Lunsford & Kenneth D. West, 2019. "Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of US Safe Real Rates," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 113-139, October.
    29. James D. Hamilton & Ethan S. Harris & Jan Hatzius & Kenneth D. West, 2016. "The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 660-707, November.
    30. Smits, J.-P. & Woltjer, P. & Ma, D., 2009. "A Dataset on Comparative Historical National Accounts, ca.1870-1950: A Time-Series Perspective," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-107, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    31. Judson, Ruth, 2017. "The Death of Cash? Not So Fast: Demand for U.S. Currency at Home and Abroad, 1990-2016," International Cash Conference 2017 – War on Cash: Is there a Future for Cash? 162910, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    32. Lucas, Robert E. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2015. "On the stability of money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 48-65.
    33. Kieran Furlong, 2001. "The Montreal Gazette call loan rate, 1871–1907," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 165-173, February.
    34. Sylvain Leduc & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Does slower growth imply lower interest rates?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    35. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2012. "Bootstrap Determination of the Co‐Integration Rank in Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(4), pages 1721-1740, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stewart, Kenneth G., 2024. "The simple macroeconometrics of the quantity theory and the welfare cost of inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    2. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2023. "A Theory of Intrinsic Inflation Persistence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 1961-2000, December.
    3. Michael Ellington, 2022. "The Empirical Relevance of the Shadow Rate and the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1605-1635, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benati, Luca & Lucas, Robert E. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Weber, Warren, 2021. "International evidence on long-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 43-63.
    2. Luca Benati & Robert E. Lucas & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Warren E. Weber, 2017. "Online Appendix for: International Evidence on Long-Run Money Demand," Working Papers 738, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Sophie Altermatt, 2018. "The Long-Run Demand for M2 Reconsidered," Diskussionsschriften dp1824, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    4. Luca Benati & Juan-Pablo Nicolini, 2019. "The Welfare Costs of Inflation," Diskussionsschriften dp1911, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    5. Luca Benati, 2022. "A New Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest," Diskussionsschriften dp2210, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    6. Todd E. Clark, 2006. "Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 563-587.
    7. Dai, Wei & Serletis, Apostolos, 2019. "On the Markov switching welfare cost of inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    8. Benati, Luca, 2015. "The long-run Phillips curve: A structural VAR investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 15-28.
    9. Luca Benati, 2017. "Cointegration Tests and the Classical Dichotomy," Diskussionsschriften dp1704, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    10. Benchimol, Jonathan & Qureshi, Irfan, 2020. "Time-varying money demand and real balance effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 197-211.
    11. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Nov), pages 609-642.
    12. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2019. "The demand for Divisia Money: Theory and evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Emilio Congregado & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2023. "Deficit sustainability and fiscal theory of price level: the case of Italy, 1861–2020," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 755-782, August.
    14. D. Ventosa-Santaulària, 2009. "Spurious Regression," Journal of Probability and Statistics, Hindawi, vol. 2009, pages 1-27, August.
    15. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.
    16. Masudul Hasan Adil & Aditi Chaubal, 2024. "Money demand stability in India: allowing for an unknown number of breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(3), pages 941-983, September.
    17. Luca Benati, Juan-Pablo Nicolini, 2024. "The Welfare Costs of Inflation Reconsidered," Diskussionsschriften dp2408, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    18. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2009. "Money demand heterogeneity and the great moderation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 255-266, March.
    19. ALBULESCU, Claudiu Tiberiu & PÉPIN, Dominique & MILLER, Stephen M., 2019. "The micro-foundations of an open economy money demand: An application to central and eastern European countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 33-45.
    20. Hans KREMERS & Andreas LOESCHEL, 2010. "The Strategic Implications of Setting Border Tax Adjustments," EcoMod2010 259600097, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money demand; Lucas critique; structural VARs; unit roots; cointegration; long-run restrictions: natural rate of interest.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp1706. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Franz Koelliker (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vwibech.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.