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Organized crime and electoral outcomes. Evidence from Sicily at the turn of the XXI century

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  • Buonanno, Paolo
  • Prarolo, Giovanni
  • Vanin, Paolo

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between Sicilian mafia and politics by focusing on municipality-level results of national political elections. It exploits the fact that in the early 1990s the Italian party system collapsed, new parties emerged and mafia families had to look for new political allies. It presents evidence, based on disaggregated data from the Italian region of Sicily, that between 1994 and 2013 Silvio Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia, obtained higher vote shares at national elections in municipalities plagued by mafia. The result is robust to the use of different measures of mafia presence, both contemporary and historical, to the inclusion of different sets of controls and to spatial analysis. Instrumenting mafia presence by determinants of its early diffusion in the late XIX century suggests that the correlation reflects a causal link.

Suggested Citation

  • Buonanno, Paolo & Prarolo, Giovanni & Vanin, Paolo, 2016. "Organized crime and electoral outcomes. Evidence from Sicily at the turn of the XXI century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 61-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:41:y:2016:i:c:p:61-74
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.11.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elections; Mafia-type organizations;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government

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