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The Logic of Fear: Populism and Media Coverage of Immigrant Crimes

Author

Listed:
  • Mathieu Couttenier

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Sophie Hatte

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Mathias Thoenig

    (UNIL - Université de Lausanne = University of Lausanne, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Stephanos Vlachos

    (Universität Wien = University of Vienna)

Abstract

We study how news coverage of immigrant criminality impacted municipality-level votes in the November 2009 "minaret ban" referendum in Switzerland. The campaign, successfully led by the populist Swiss People's Party, played aggressively on fears of Muslim immigration and linked Islam with terrorism and violence. We combine an exhaustive violent crime detection dataset with detailed information on crime coverage from 12 newspapers. The data allow us to quantify the extent of pre-vote media bias in the coverage of migrant criminality. We then estimate a theory-based voting equation in the cross-section of municipalities. Exploiting random variations in crime occurrences, we find a first-order, positive effect of news coverage on political support for the minaret ban. Counterfactual simulations show that, under a law forbidding newspapers to disclose a perpetrator's nationality, the vote in favor of the ban would have decreased by 5 percentage points (from 57.6% to 52.6%).

Suggested Citation

  • Mathieu Couttenier & Sophie Hatte & Mathias Thoenig & Stephanos Vlachos, 2019. "The Logic of Fear: Populism and Media Coverage of Immigrant Crimes," Working Papers halshs-02095658, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02095658
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02095658
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Vad media skriver om invandrare påverkar väljare
      by Niclas Berggren in Nonicoclolasos on 2019-04-23 04:12:50

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    2. Ghazaryan, Armine & Giulietti, Corrado & Wahba, Jackline, 2022. "Terror headlines and voting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    3. Sarah Schneider-Strawczynski & Jérôme Valette, 2021. "Media Coverage of Immigration and the Polarization of Attitudes," PSE Working Papers halshs-03322229, HAL.
    4. Massimiliano Agovino & Maria Rosaria Carillo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2022. "Effect of Media News on Radicalization of Attitudes to Immigration," Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 318-340, December.
    5. Giavazzi, Francesco & Lemoli, Giacomo & Rubera, Gaia & Iglhaut, Felix, 2020. "Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter," CEPR Discussion Papers 14455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Miloš Fišar & Tommaso Reggiani & Fabio Sabatini & Jiří Špalek, 2022. "Media negativity bias and tax compliance: experimental evidence," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(5), pages 1160-1212, October.
    7. Miloš Fišar & Tommaso Reggiani & Fabio Sabatini & Jiří Špalek, 2020. "Media Bias and Tax Compliance: Experimental Evidence," MUNI ECON Working Papers 2020-01, Masaryk University, revised Feb 2023.
    8. Milena Djourelova, 2020. "Media persuasion through slanted language: Evidence from the coverage of immigration," Economics Working Papers 1720, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    9. Francesco Giavazzi & Felix Iglhaut & Giacomo Lemoli & Gaia Rubera, 2020. "Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter," Working Papers 659, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    10. Ajzenman, Nicolas & Dominguez-Rivera, Patricio & Undurraga, Raimundo, 2021. "Immigration, Crime, and Crime (Mis)Perceptions," IZA Discussion Papers 14087, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Megalokonomou, Rigissa & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2023. "The effects of exposure to refugees on crime: Evidence from the Greek islands," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    12. Francesco Giavazzi & Felix Iglhaut & Giacomo Lemoli & Gaia Rubera, 2020. "Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter," NBER Working Papers 26825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Media; Violent crime; Immigration; Vote; Populism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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