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The Age of the Dragon: The Effect of Imports from China on Firm‐Level Prices

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  • MATTEO BUGAMELLI
  • SILVIA FABIANI
  • ENRICO SETTE

Abstract

We analyze the impact of increased import penetration from China on the dynamics of firm‐level output prices in Italy. Accounting for potential endogeneity biases we find a significant and negative causal relationship: a 0.1 percentage point higher Chinese import penetration restrains price growth by 0.17 percentage points per year. This relationship reflects a procompetitive effect induced by cheaper imports, and, thanks to the firm‐level dimension of our data, we show that it is driven by low‐productivity firms within less skill‐intensive sectors. Finally, we show that Chinese import competition also had a dampening effect on Italian overall inflation.

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  • Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Enrico Sette, 2015. "The Age of the Dragon: The Effect of Imports from China on Firm‐Level Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(6), pages 1091-1118, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:47:y:2015:i:6:p:1091-1118
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12238
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    Cited by:

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    2. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Stefano Federico & Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano & Andrea Linarello, 2018. "Back on Track? A Macro–Micro Narrative of Italian Exports," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, March.
    3. Raphael A. Auer & Claudio Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2017. "The Globalisation of Inflation: The Growing Importance of Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 6387, CESifo.
    4. Jasmine Mondolo, 2021. "Macroeconomic dynamics and the role of market power. The case of Italy," DEM Working Papers 2021/17, Department of Economics and Management.
    5. Michiel Gerritse & Andrea Caragliu, 2022. "Import competition and domestic transport costs," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-071/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Juan Carluccio & Erwan Gautier & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi, 2018. "Dissecting the Impact of Imports from Low-Wage Countries on French Consumer Prices," Working papers 672, Banque de France.
    7. Roberto Torrini, 2015. "Labour, Profit and Housing Rent Shares in Italian GDP: Long-Run Trends and Recent Patterns," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 275-314.
    8. Sebastian Heise & Fatih Karahan & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "The Missing Inflation Puzzle: The Role of the Wage‐Price Pass‐Through," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(S1), pages 7-51, February.
    9. Joakim Gullstrand, 2020. "What goes around comes around: The effects of sanctions on Swedish firms in the wake of the Ukraine crisis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2315-2342, September.
    10. Duc Anh Dang, 2017. "The effects of Chinese import penetration on firm innovation: Evidence from the Vietnamese manufacturing sector," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-77, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Mondolo, Jasmine, 2020. "Macro and microeconomic evidence on investment, factor shares, firm and labor dynamics in Italy and in Trentino," MPRA Paper 99138, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Mauro Caselli & Stefano Schiavo, 2020. "Markups, import competition and exporting," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 1309-1326, May.
    13. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2021. "Money and inflation in inflation-targeting regimes – new evidence from time–frequency analysis," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 17-44, January.
    14. Ciani, Andrea & Mau, Karsten, 2023. "Delivery times in international competition: An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    15. Yuan Zi, 2016. "Trade Liberalization and the Great Labor Reallocation," IHEID Working Papers 18-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    16. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Silvio Traverso, 2021. "Globalization, robotization, and electoral outcomes: Evidence from spatial regressions for Italy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 86-111, January.
    17. Duc Anh Dang, 2017. "The effects of Chinese import penetration on firm innovation: Evidence from the Vietnamese manufacturing sector," WIDER Working Paper Series 077, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Mondolo, Jasmine, 2021. "Macroeconomic dynamics and the role of market power. The case of Italy," MPRA Paper 110172, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Oct 2021.
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