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Forecasting football match results using a player rating based model

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  • Holmes, Benjamin
  • McHale, Ian G.

Abstract

The paper presents a model for forecasting the results of football matches, which takes into account the abilities of the players on each team. The advantage of this approach is that the dynamic nature of team strengths is incorporated into the model directly. We test our model against the bookmaker’s predictions and in a Kelly-type betting strategy applied to the pre-match win/draw/loss market. The new model results in significant positive returns to betting.

Suggested Citation

  • Holmes, Benjamin & McHale, Ian G., 2024. "Forecasting football match results using a player rating based model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 302-312.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:40:y:2024:i:1:p:302-312
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.03.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wheatcroft, Edward, 2020. "A profitable model for predicting the over/under market in football," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103712, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Peeters, Thomas, 2018. "Testing the Wisdom of Crowds in the field: Transfermarkt valuations and international soccer results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 17-29.
    3. D. J. Johnstone & S. Jones & V. R. R. Jose & M. Peat, 2013. "Measures of the economic value of probabilities of bankruptcy," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(3), pages 635-653, June.
    4. Siem Jan Koopman & Rutger Lit, 2015. "A dynamic bivariate Poisson model for analysing and forecasting match results in the English Premier League," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(1), pages 167-186, January.
    5. Hvattum, Lars Magnus & Arntzen, Halvard, 2010. "Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 460-470, July.
    6. Wheatcroft, Edward, 2021. "Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of football matches: the case against the ranked probability score," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111494, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Rose D. Baker & Ian G. McHale, 2015. "Time varying ratings in association football: the all-time greatest team is.," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(2), pages 481-492, February.
    8. M. J. Maher, 1982. "Modelling association football scores," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 36(3), pages 109-118, September.
    9. Wheatcroft, Edward, 2020. "A profitable model for predicting the over/under market in football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 916-932.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rachel Scarfe & Carl Singleton & Adesola Sunmoni & Paul Telemo, 2024. "The age‐wage‐productivity puzzle: Evidence from the careers of top earners," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(2), pages 584-606, April.

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