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Kuresel Kriz Doneminde TCMB’nin Faiz Kararlarinin Kur Uzerindeki Etkisine Dair Bir Analiz

Author

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  • Eda Gulsen
  • Ibrahim Burak Kanli
  • Neslihan Kaya

Abstract

Bu not, son yasanan kriz surecinde Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi’nin (TCMB) faiz kararlari ile Turk lirasinin (TL) deger degisimi arasindaki iliskiyi incelemektedir. Bu kapsamda, TCMB’nin aldigi faiz kararlarinin Turk lirasinin performansi uzerindeki etkisi vaka analizi yontemi kullanilarak analiz edilmistir. Ilk olarak kriz surecinde faiz kararlarinin hemen ardindan Turk lirasinin goreli performansi incelenmistir. Elde edilen sonuclara gore, surpriz kararlar sonrasinda dahi, soklarin TL uzerindeki etkisi sinirli ve kisa sureli olmaktadir. Bunun yani sira, politika faizi surprizlerinin kur uzerindeki etkisinin zamana gore seyrini incelemek amaciyla karar sonrasi faiz sokunun, TL’nin ABD dolari karsisindaki deger degisimi uzerine etkisi kayan pencereler seklinde tahmin edilmistir. Sonuclar, ilk kisimdaki analizi destekler bicimde kriz sureciyle birlikte faiz soklarinin kur uzerindeki etkisini kaybettigine isaret etmektedir. Bunun baslica sebebinin, risk algilamalarinin sira disi bicimde arttigi kriz sureclerinde yatirimcilarin karar alirken ek getiri imkanlarindan ziyade ulke riskliligini goz onunde bulundurmalari oldugu dusunulmektedir.

Suggested Citation

  • Eda Gulsen & Ibrahim Burak Kanli & Neslihan Kaya, 2010. "Kuresel Kriz Doneminde TCMB’nin Faiz Kararlarinin Kur Uzerindeki Etkisine Dair Bir Analiz," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1011, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Demetriades, Panicos O., 2005. "Monetary policy and the exchange rate during the Asian crisis: identification through heteroscedasticity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-53, February.
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    6. Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: evidence from three small open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 635-652, April.
    7. Zelal Aktas & Harun Alp & Refet Gurkaynak & Mehtap Kesriyeli & Musa Orak, 2008. "Turkiye�de Para Politikasinin Aktarimi:Para Politikasinin Mali Piyasalara Etkisi," Working Papers 0811, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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