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Monetary policy, default risk and the exchange rate in Brazil

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  • Gonçalves, Carlos Eduardo
  • Guimaraes, Bernardo Guimaraes

Abstract

In a country with high probability of default, higher interest rates may render the currency less attractive if sovereign default is costly. This paper develops that intuition in a simple model and estimates the effect of changes in interest rates on the exchange rate in Brazil using data from the dates surrounding the monetary policy committee meetings and the methodology of identification through heteroskedasticity. Indeed, we find that unexpected increases in interest rates tend to lead the Brazilian currency to depreciate.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonçalves, Carlos Eduardo & Guimaraes, Bernardo Guimaraes, 2011. "Monetary policy, default risk and the exchange rate in Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(1), March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:65:y:2011:i:1:a:1402
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2006. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time: Testing the Efficiency of the Euribor Futures Market," CEP Discussion Papers dp0764, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

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