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Elusive Unpleasantness

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Goncalves
  • Mauro Rodrigues
  • Fernando Genta

Abstract

As first argued in Sargent and Wallace (1981), under certain conditions a tighter monetary policy today might give rise to higher expected inflation if the public perceives that the worsened debt dynamics could end up in debt monetization. This channel is arguably stronger in countries featuring high debt and interest rates, along with weaker economic institutions. Brazil is a large emerging economy that fits the profile. Yet, using a high-frequency identification strategy, we show that higher interest rates lead to unequivocally lower inflation expectations (and local currency appreciation) around Brazil’s Central Bank monetary policy meetings.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Goncalves & Mauro Rodrigues & Fernando Genta, 2022. "Elusive Unpleasantness," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2022_16, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2022wpecon16
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    File URL: http://www.repec.eae.fea.usp.br/documentos/Goncalves_Rodrigues_Genta_16WP.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    2. Barthélemy, Jean & Mengus, Eric & Plantin, Guillaume, 2024. "The central bank, the treasury, or the market: Which one determines the price level?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    3. David Andolfatto, 2021. "Is It Time for Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(3), pages 315-332, July.
    4. Sims, Christopher A., 2011. "Stepping on a rake: The role of fiscal policy in the inflation of the 1970s," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 48-56, January.
    5. Joydeep Bhattacharya & Noritaka Kudoh, 2002. "Tight money policies and inflation revisited," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 185-217, May.
    6. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    7. Martín Uribe, 2016. "Is The Monetarist Arithmetic Unpleasant?," NBER Working Papers 22866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; inflation expectations; Brazil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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