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The Multifaceted Impact of US Trade Policy on Financial Markets

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  • Lukas Boer
  • Lukas Menkhoff
  • Malte Rieth

Abstract

We study the multifaceted effects and persistence of trade policy shocks on financial markets in a structural vector autoregression. The model is identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively, increasing market uncertainty, lowering interest rates, and leading to an appreciation of the US-Dollar. The effects are significant for several weeks or quarters. Regarding shock types, we reveal a dominating trade policy uncertainty shock and a weaker level shock. Chinese trade policy shocks against the US further hurt US stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas Boer & Lukas Menkhoff & Malte Rieth, 2021. "The Multifaceted Impact of US Trade Policy on Financial Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1956, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1956
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade policy shock; structural VAR; stock prices; exchange rates; interest rates; heteroskedasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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