IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_9770.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Corporate Debt and Stock Returns: Evidence from U.S. Firms During the 2020 Oil Crash

Author

Listed:
  • Rabah Arezki
  • Caleb Cho
  • Ha Nguyen
  • Kate Nguyen
  • Anh Pham

Abstract

This paper explores the effect of oil price fluctuations on the stock returns of U.S. oil firms using a strategy of identification through heteroskedasticity exploiting the 2020 oil crash. Results are twofold. First, we find that a decline in oil prices statistically significantly reduces stock returns of oil firms. On average, a one percent decline in oil prices leads to a 0.44 percent decline in stock prices. Second, results point to the “irrelevance” of debt in mediating the effect of oil prices on stock returns of oil firms. The liquidity backstop provided by the Federal Reserve appears not to have muted the role of debt for oil firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Rabah Arezki & Caleb Cho & Ha Nguyen & Kate Nguyen & Anh Pham, 2022. "Corporate Debt and Stock Returns: Evidence from U.S. Firms During the 2020 Oil Crash," CESifo Working Paper Series 9770, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9770
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp9770.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boyer, M. Martin & Filion, Didier, 2007. "Common and fundamental factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 428-453, May.
    2. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    3. Rüdiger Fahlenbrach & Kevin Rageth & René M Stulz, 2021. "How Valuable Is Financial Flexibility when Revenue Stops? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis [The risk of being a fallen angel and the corporate dash for cash in the midst of COVID]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5474-5521.
    4. Merton H. Miller, 1989. "The Modigliani‐Miller Propositions After Thirty Years," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 2(1), pages 6-18, March.
    5. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Julia Zhulanova, 2019. "The shale oil boom and the US economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects," CAMA Working Papers 2019-59, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-1252, September.
    7. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    8. Peter M. Demarzo & Zhiguo He, 2021. "Leverage Dynamics without Commitment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1195-1250, June.
    9. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1991. "The Theory of Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 297-355, March.
    10. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Julia Zhulanova, 2018. "The Shale Oil Boom and the U.S. Economy: Spillovers and Time-Varying Effects," Working Papers No 8/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    11. Hayne E. Leland., 1998. "Agency Costs, Risk Management, and Capital Structure," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-278, University of California at Berkeley.
    12. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bontempi, Maria Elena & Bottazzi, Laura & Golinelli, Roberto, 2020. "A multilevel index of heterogeneous short-term and long-term debt dynamics," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Agliardi, Elettra & Andergassen, Rainer, 2009. "Last resort gambles, risky debt and liquidation policy," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 142-155, August.
    3. Nan Chen & S. G. Kou, 2009. "Credit Spreads, Optimal Capital Structure, And Implied Volatility With Endogenous Default And Jump Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 343-378, July.
    4. Decamps, Jean-Paul & Faure-Grimaud, Antoine, 2002. "Excessive continuation and dynamic agency costs of debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1623-1644, October.
    5. Attaoui, Sami & Cao, Wenbin & Duan, Xiaoman & Liu, Hening, 2021. "Optimal capital structure, ambiguity aversion, and leverage puzzles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. John D. Schatzberg & David Weeks, 2004. "Security Choice, Information Effects and Firm Characteristics: A Factor Analytic Approach," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9‐10), pages 1483-1503, November.
    7. repec:dgr:rugsom:01e54 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Bolton, Patrick & Li, Ye & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2020. "Dynamic Banking and the Value of Deposits," Working Paper Series 2020-13, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    9. Benzoni, Luca & Garlappi, Lorenzo & Goldstein, Robert S. & Ying, Chao, 2022. "Debt dynamics with fixed issuance costs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 385-402.
    10. Ardalan, Kavous, 2017. "Capital structure theory: Reconsidered," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 696-710.
    11. Nils Friewald & Florian Nagler & Christian Wagner, 2022. "Debt Refinancing and Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2287-2329, August.
    12. Gan, Liu & Xia, Xin & Zhang, Hai, 2022. "Debt structure and debt overhang," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Chen, Linda H. & Jiang, George J., 2001. "The financing behavior of Dutch firms," Research Report 01E54, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    14. Klimczak, Karol Marek, 2005. "Rationales for corporate risk management from stakeholders’ perspective," MPRA Paper 4242, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jou, Jyh-Bang, 2001. "Entry, financing, and bankruptcy decisions: The limited liability effect," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 69-88.
    16. Jianjun Miao, 2005. "Optimal Capital Structure and Industry Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2621-2659, December.
    17. Shilin Li & Jinqiang Yang & Siqi Zhao, 2022. "Robust leverage dynamics without commitment," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 74(2), pages 643-679, September.
    18. Chen, Zhiyao & Hackbarth, Dirk & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2022. "A unified model of distress risk puzzles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 357-384.
    19. Li Chen & H. Vincent Poor, 2003. "Information Asymmetry, Corporate Debt Financing and Optimal Investment Decisions: A Reduced Form Approach," Finance 0312008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Ming Fang & Rui Zhong, 2004. "Default Risk, Firm's Characteristics, and Risk Shifting," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2461, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2005.
    21. Kamoto, Shinsuke, 2023. "Investment decisions and financial leverage under a potential entry threat," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil prices; stock returns; debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9770. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.