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Is It Time for Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic?

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  • David Andolfatto

Abstract

Sargent and Wallace (1981) published "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" 40 years ago. Their central message was that a central bank may not have the power to determine the long-run rate of inflation without fiscal support. In a policy regime where the fiscal authority is non-Ricardian, an attempt on the part of the central bank to lower inflation may end up backfiring. I develop a structural model to illustrate this result through the use of a diagram. In addition, I use the model to explain how low inflation, low interest rates, and high primary budget deficits can coexist. I also use the model to explain why it is easier for a central bank to lower inflation than to raise it. I conclude with some recommendations for state-contingent monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • David Andolfatto, 2021. "Is It Time for Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(3), pages 315-332, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:92884
    DOI: 10.20955/r.103.315-32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tatiana Kirsanova & Campbell Leith & Simon Wren‐Lewis, 2009. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction: The Current Consensus Assignment in the Light of Recent Developments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(541), pages 482-496, November.
    2. Bassetto, Marco & Cui, Wei, 2018. "The fiscal theory of the price level in a world of low interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 5-22.
    3. Marco Bassetto & Thomas J. Sargent, 2020. "Shotgun Wedding: Fiscal and Monetary Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 659-690, August.
    4. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo, 2019. "The dire effects of the lack of monetary and fiscal coordination," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-22.
    5. Stephen D. Williamson, 2016. "Neo-Fisherism: A Radical Idea, or the Most Obvious Solution to the Low-Inflation Problem?," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue July.
    6. Carlo A. Favero & Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary-Fiscal Mix and Inflation Performance: Evidence from the U.S," Working Papers 234, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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    1. repec:fip:a00001:92864 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:fip:a00001:95908 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Carlos Goncalves & Mauro Rodrigues & Fernando Genta, 2022. "Elusive Unpleasantness," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2022_16, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    interest rates; monetary policy; inflation; budget deficits;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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