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Deep Learning Market Microstructure: Dual-Stage Attention-Based Recurrent Neural Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Chaeshick Chung

    (Department of Economics, Sogang University)

  • Sukjin Park

    (Department of Economics, Sogang University)

Abstract

This paper applies the Dual-Stage Attention-Based Recurrent Neural Network(DA- RNN) model to predict future price movements using microstructure variables. The biggest feature of the DA-RNN model is that it adaptively selects relevant variables according to market conditions. We analyze whether microstructure variables have predictive power for future price movements, and what factors in uence this predic- tive power. We nd that microstructure variables possess predictive power against the direction of future price movements. This predictive power depends on how many uninformed traders exist in the market. Moreover, the importance of mi- crostructure variables is negatively related to market liquidity. Thus, while mi- crostructure variables are more important in severe market conditions with high transaction costs, the e ect of trading on price dynamics depends on market struc- ture.

Suggested Citation

  • Chaeshick Chung & Sukjin Park, 2021. "Deep Learning Market Microstructure: Dual-Stage Attention-Based Recurrent Neural Networks," Working Papers 2108, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    • Handle: RePEc:sgo:wpaper:2108
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Attention Mechanism; Deep Learning; Machine Learning; Market Mi- crostructure; Informed Trading;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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