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Microstructure in the Machine Age
[The risk of machine learning]

Author

Listed:
  • David Easley
  • Marcos López de Prado
  • Maureen O’Hara
  • Zhibai Zhang
  • Wei Jiang

Abstract

Understanding modern market microstructure phenomena requires large amounts of data and advanced mathematical tools. We demonstrate how machine learning can be applied to microstructural research. We find that microstructure measures continue to provide insights into the price process in current complex markets. Some microstructure features with high explanatory power exhibit low predictive power, while others with less explanatory power have more predictive power. We find that some microstructure-based measures are useful for out-of-sample prediction of various market statistics, leading to questions about market efficiency. We also show how microstructure measures can have important cross-asset effects. Our results are derived using 87 liquid futures contracts across all asset classes.

Suggested Citation

  • David Easley & Marcos López de Prado & Maureen O’Hara & Zhibai Zhang & Wei Jiang, 2021. "Microstructure in the Machine Age [The risk of machine learning]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(7), pages 3316-3363.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:34:y:2021:i:7:p:3316-3363.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhaa078
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Zhimeng Yang & Ariah Klages-Mundt & Lewis Gudgeon, 2023. "Oracle Counterpoint: Relationships between On-chain and Off-chain Market Data," Papers 2303.16331, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    3. Zhang, Junsheng & Peng, Zezhi & Zeng, Yamin & Yang, Haisheng, 2023. "Do big data mutual funds outperform?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Hoang, Daniel & Wiegratz, Kevin, 2022. "Machine learning methods in finance: Recent applications and prospects," Working Paper Series in Economics 158, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    5. He, Xue-Zhong & Lin, Shen, 2022. "Reinforcement Learning Equilibrium in Limit Order Markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Li, Ang & Liu, Mark & Sheather, Simon, 2023. "Predicting stock splits using ensemble machine learning and SMOTE oversampling," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. O’Sullivan, Conall & Papavassiliou, Vassilios G. & Wafula, Ronald Wekesa & Boubaker, Sabri, 2024. "New insights into liquidity resiliency," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. James, Robert & Leung, Henry & Leung, Jessica Wai Yin & Prokhorov, Artem, 2023. "Forecasting tail risk measures for financial time series: An extreme value approach with covariates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 29-50.
    9. Kara Karpman & Sumanta Basu & David Easley, 2022. "Learning Financial Networks with High-frequency Trade Data," Papers 2208.03568, arXiv.org.
    10. Bui, Dien Giau & Kong, De-Rong & Lin, Chih-Yung & Lin, Tse-Chun, 2023. "Momentum in machine learning: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    11. Chiranjit Dutta & Kara Karpman & Sumanta Basu & Nalini Ravishanker, 2023. "Review of Statistical Approaches for Modeling High-Frequency Trading Data," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 85(1), pages 1-48, May.
    12. Lauter, Tobias & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2022. "Measuring commodity market quality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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