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Do High Speed Railways Lead to Urban Economic Growth in China?

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  • Jack Strauss

    (University of Denver)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of high-speed railroads (HSR) on city-level economic activity using a new dataset for approximately 200 cities in China from 2007-2014. We apply panel Granger causality methods to assess whether increases in a city?s accessibility increases GDP growth, GDP per capita growth and wage growth. Or does causality run the opposite way ? does rising economic growth boost accessibility? Results document that increases in accessibility lead to significant and relatively large increases in GDP growth on the city-level; further, the benefits substantially out-weigh HSR?s fixed costs, depreciation and subsidies. Out-of-sample methods document the importance of increases in HSR in forecasting GDP growth. Monte Carlo simulations document the usefulness of OLS and out-of-sample tests in assessing panel Granger Causality tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Jack Strauss, 2017. "Do High Speed Railways Lead to Urban Economic Growth in China?," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 4807677, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:sek:iefpro:4807677
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    Keywords

    China Infrastructure; Granger Causality; High Speed Railroads;
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