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The variation in the value of travel-time savings and the dilemma of high-speed rail in China

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  • Zhao, Jian
  • Zhao, Yunyi
  • Li, Ying

Abstract

This paper examines the variation in the value of travel-time savings (VTTS), a fundamental element determining the market demand for high-speed rail. Following a review of time allocation theories, a time allocation model for general travel behavior is proposed as a further elaboration of Evans’ (1972) activities analysis. There are relationships among activities that can be expressed using a linear inequality to show the constraints on the arrangement of activities. This model indicates that two or more activities can be simultaneously rearranged to improve time management, which may be a source of variation in VTTS. This time allocation model can explain why large-scale high-speed rail construction in China faces significant market risks and a high likelihood of economic loss. Data from a new ticket sales and booking system for railway passengers indicate that passengers prefer conventional overnight sleeper trains, rather than high-speed trains, for long-distance travel, which supports the analysis of the time allocation model.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Jian & Zhao, Yunyi & Li, Ying, 2015. "The variation in the value of travel-time savings and the dilemma of high-speed rail in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 130-140.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:82:y:2015:i:c:p:130-140
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2015.09.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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