IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sbp/wpaper/25.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Targeting in Pakistan: A Skeptical Note

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Omer

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

  • Omar Farooq Saqib

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

Abstract

The objective of this study is to evaluate monetary targeting strategy in Pakistan by testing the Quantity Theory of Money and the income velocity of money stated by Monetarists and the endogenous money hypothesis postulated by the Post Keynesians. Our tests on the Pakistani data covering about thirty years reveal that the quantity theory is an inadequate explanation of inflation, income velocity of money is unstable, and money is endogenous. These results suggest rethinking on monetary targeting strategy in Pakistan. Length: 23 pages

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Omer & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2008. "Monetary Targeting in Pakistan: A Skeptical Note," SBP Working Paper Series 25, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:sbp:wpaper:25
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sbp.org.pk/repec/sbp/wpaper/wp25.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2008
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Pollin, 1991. "Two Theories of Money Supply Endogeneity: Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 366-396, March.
    2. Abbas, Kalbe & Fazal, Husain, 2006. "Money, Income and Prices in Pakistan: A Bi-variat and Tri-varate Causility," MPRA Paper 4892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 1990. "The long-run behavior of velocity: The institutional approach revisited," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 165-197.
    4. Madhavi Bokil & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 341-368.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1990. "The long-run behavior of velocity: the institutional approach revisited: introduction," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 165-204.
    7. Friedman, Benjamin M, 1988. "Lessons on Monetary Policy from the 1980s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 51-72, Summer.
    8. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik, 2015. "Evaluating the Performance of Inflation Forecasting Models of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 11, pages 43-78.
    9. John R. Moroney, 2002. "Money Growth, Output Growth, and Inflation: Estimation of a Modern Quantity Theory," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(2), pages 398-413, October.
    10. James Laurenceson & Joseph C.H. Chai, 2003. "Financial Reform and Economic Development in China," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2714.
    11. Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, June.
    12. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    13. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1988. "Lessons On Monetary Policy From The 1980's," NBER Working Papers 2551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Thomas I. Palley, 1996. "Post Keynesian Economics," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-37412-6, December.
    15. Zulfiqar Hyder & Adil Mahboob, 2006. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Misalignment in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 237-263..
    16. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    17. Cottrell, Allin, 1994. "Post-Keynesian Monetary Economics," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 18(6), pages 587-605, December.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    20. Abdul Qayyum, 2006. "Money, Inflation, and Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 203-212.
    21. Thomas I. Palley, 1996. "Accommodationism versus Structuralism: Time for an Accommodation," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 585-594, July.
    22. Ursula K. Webb, 1934. "Taxation and ProductionThe Wicksell Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 2(1), pages 18-30.
    23. Bala Shanmugam & Mahendhiran Nair & Ong Wee Li, 2003. "The endogenous money hypothesis: empirical evidence from Malaysia (1985-2000)," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 599-611.
    24. Kalbe Abbas & Fazal Husain, 2006. "Money, Income and Prices in Pakistan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 7(1), pages 55-65, March.
    25. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1996. "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 661-682, August.
    26. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    27. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 2005/105, International Monetary Fund.
    28. M. Ali Kemal, 2006. "Is Inflation in Pakistan a Monetary Phenomenon?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 213-220.
    29. Alfonso Palacio Vera, 2001. "The Endogenous Money Hypothesis: Some Evidence from Spain (1987–1998)," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 509-526, March.
    30. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 185-202.
    31. repec:bla:scandj:v:80:y:1978:i:2:p:216-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    2. repec:aly:journl:201940 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Muhammad Omer & Jakob De Haan & Bert Scholtens, 2015. "An empirical analysis of excess interbank liquidity: a case study of Pakistan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(44), pages 4754-4776, March.
    4. Adnan Haider & Asad Jan & Kalim Hyder, 2013. "On the (Ir)Relevance of Monetary Aggregate Targeting in Pakistan: An Eclectic View," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 65-119, July-Dec.
    5. Khan, Safdar Ullah & Saqib, Omar Farooq, 2011. "Political instability and inflation in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 540-549.
    6. Mohsin S. Khan, 2009. "The Design and Conduct of Monetary Policy: Lessons for Pakistan (The Quaid-i-Azam Lecture)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 48(4), pages 337-356.
    7. Omer, Muhammad, 2009. "Stability of money demand function in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 35306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Muhammad Omer & Jakob de Haan & Bert Scholtens, 2014. "Impact of Interbank Liquidity on Monetary Transmission Mechanism: A Case Study of Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 70, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    9. Muhammad Javid & Kashif Munir, 2010. "The Price Puzzle and Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Pakistan: Structural Vector Autoregressive Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 449-460.
    10. Wasanthi Thenuwara & Bryan Morgan, 2017. "Monetary targeting in Sri Lanka: how much control does the central bank have over the money supply?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 276-296, April.
    11. Hassan, Rubina & Shahzad, Mirza Muhammad, 2011. "A macroeconometric framework for monetary policy evaluation: A case study of Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 118-137, January.
    12. Zafar Hayat, 2017. "Pakistan’s Monetary Policy: Some Fundamental Issues," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 31-58.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khan, Safdar Ullah & Saqib, Omar Farooq, 2011. "Political instability and inflation in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 540-549.
    2. Omer, Muhammad, 2009. "Stability of money demand function in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 35306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2012. "Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 628-634.
    4. Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.
    5. Badarudin, Z.E. & Ariff, M. & Khalid, A.M., 2013. "Post-Keynesian money endogeneity evidence in G-7 economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 146-162.
    6. Mohamad A. Abou Hamia, 2016. "Jobless growth: empirical evidences from the Middle East and North Africa region [Wachstum ohne Beschäftigung – empirische Evidenz aus Nahost und Nordafrika]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 49(3), pages 239-251, November.
    7. Naser, Hanan, 2014. "On the cointegration and causality between Oil market, Nuclear Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Developed Countries," MPRA Paper 65252, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Mar 2015.
    8. Levrero, Enrico Sergio & Deleidi, Matteo, 2017. "The money creation process: A theoretical and empirical analysis for the US," MPRA Paper 81970, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Rahman, Mohammad Chhiddikur, 2020. "Welfare Impact of Asymmetric Price Transmission on Bangladesh Rice Consumers," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 242248, January.
    10. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Energy prices and exchange rates of the U.S. dollar: Further evidence from linear and nonlinear causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2289-2297.
    11. Salami Doyin & Kelikume Ikechukwu, 2013. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon? The Case of Nigeria," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 7(2), pages 105-114.
    12. Lei Pan & Svetlana Maslyuk-Escobedo & Vinod Mishra, 2019. "Carry Trade Returns and Commodity Prices under Capital and Interest Rate Controls: Empirical Evidence from China," Monash Economics Working Papers 16-18, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    13. Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.
    14. Rahman, Mohammad Chhiddikur, 2018. "Welfare Impact of Asymmetric Price Transmission on Bangladesh Rice Consumers," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 251114, January.
    15. Ramya Rajajagadeesan Aroul & Peggy E. Swanson, 2018. "Linkages Between the Foreign Exchange Markets of BRIC Countries—Brazil, Russia, India and China—and the USA," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(3), pages 333-353, December.
    16. Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Manuel Artís, 2005. "The role of the tourism sector in economic development - Lessons from the Spanish experience," ERSA conference papers ersa05p488, European Regional Science Association.
    17. Zhang, Yu & Zhang, Sufang, 2018. "The impacts of GDP, trade structure, exchange rate and FDI inflows on China's carbon emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 347-353.
    18. Ramona Dumitriu & Razvan Stefanescu, 2015. "The Relationship Between Romanian Exports And Economic Growth After The Adhesion To European Union," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 17-26.
    19. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    20. Catherine Bruneau & Eric Jondeau, 1999. "Long‐run Causality, with an Application to International Links Between Long‐term Interest Rates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(4), pages 545-568, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Targeting; QTM; income velocity of money; endogenous money;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sbp:wpaper:25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Faisal Saleem (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sbpgvpk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.