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Is Inflation in Pakistan a Monetary Phenomenon?

Author

Listed:
  • M. Ali Kemal

    (Pakisatn Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

Abstract

The paper finds that an increase in money supply over the long-run results in a higher rate of inflation and thus provides support for the quantity theory of money. It establishes that inflation is essentially a monetary phenomenon. However, the money supply does not instantly influence the price levels; the impact of money supply on inflation has a considerable lag of about 9 months. While the study shows that the money supply works through the system in less than a year, it also points out that the system takes rather long to converge to equilibrium if shocks appear in any of the three variables, viz., GDP, money supply, and prices.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Ali Kemal, 2006. "Is Inflation in Pakistan a Monetary Phenomenon?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 213-220.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:2:p:213-220
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    File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2006/Volume2/213-220.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Syed Nawab Haider Naqvi & Ashfaque H. Khan, 1989. "Inflation And Growth An Analysis Of Recent Trends In Pakistan," PIDE Books, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, number 1989:1.
    2. Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, June.
    3. M. Aynul Hasan & Ashfaque H. Khan & Hafiz A. Pasha & M. Ajaz Rasheed, 1995. "What Explains the Current High Rate of Inflation in Pakistan?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 927-943.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mehak Moazam & M. Ali Kemal, 2016. "Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Oil Prices," Working Papers id:11507, eSocialSciences.
    2. Muhammad REHMAN*, 2010. "Money-Inflation Relationship: Band Spectrum Analysis Approach," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 20, pages 67-76.
    3. Arif Khan & Gul Zeb Chaudhary, 2020. "Determinants Of Inflation In Case Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 151-161, December.
    4. Sadia Hussain & Shafei Moiz Hali & Riaz Ahmad & Sumera Iqbal & Hamza Iftikhar, 2021. "Fiscal decentralization and poverty alleviation: A case study of Pakistan," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(2), pages 139-154, June.
    5. Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.
    6. Muhammad Omer & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2009. "Monetary Targeting in Pakistan: A Skeptical Note," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 5, pages 53-81.
    7. Roy, Ripon & Rahman, Md. Mokhlesur, 2014. "An empirical analysis of remittance – inflation relationship in Bangladesh: post-floating exchange rate scenario," MPRA Paper 55190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Siffat Mushtaq & Abdul Rashid & Abdul Qayyum, 2012. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(1), pages 61-96.
    9. Khan, Safdar Ullah & Saqib, Omar Farooq, 2011. "Political instability and inflation in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 540-549.
    10. Salami Doyin & Kelikume Ikechukwu, 2013. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon? The Case of Nigeria," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 7(2), pages 105-114.
    11. Saira Tufail & Sadia Batool, 2013. "An Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Gold Prices: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 1-35, July-Dec.
    12. Henna Ahsan & Zainab Iftikhar & M. Ali Kemal, 2011. "The Determinants of Food Prices: A Case Study of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2011:76, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    13. Md. Sayebur Rahman, 2023. "Exploring the Impact of Inflation on Economic Development in Bangladesh," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 19(1), pages 87-96.
    14. Kiran Ijaz & Muhammad Zakaria & Bashir A. Fida, 2014. "Terms-of-Trade Volatility and Inflation in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 111-132, Jan-June.
    15. Saba Saleem & Khalil Ahmad, 2015. "Crude Oil Price and Inflation in Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 4(1), pages 10-18, March.
    16. Nicas Yabu & Nicholaus J. Kessy, 2015. "Appropriate Threshold Level of Inflation for Economic Growth: Evidence from the Three Founding EAC Countries," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 2(3), pages 127-144, August.
    17. Salahodjaev, Raufhon & Chepel, Sergey, 2014. "Institutional Quality and Inflation," MPRA Paper 55272, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Omer, Muhammad, 2009. "Stability of money demand function in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 35306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Khan, Mahmood ul Hassan & Hanif, Muhammad Nadim, 2012. "Role of Demand and Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 48884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Siyabonga Mndebele & Devi Datt Tewari & Kehinde Damilola Ilesanmi, 2023. "Testing the Validity of the Quantity Theory of Money on Sectoral Data: Non-Linear Evidence from South Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-26, February.
    21. Kashif Ali & Mahmood Khalid, 2019. "Sources to Finance Fiscal Deficit and Their Impact on Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 27-43.
    22. Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.
    23. Rabia Saghir & Saiqa Saddiqa Qureshi & Hina Hayat, 2022. "Internationalization Of Relationship Between Inflation And Money Supply Policies: An Empirical Study Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(1), pages 234-239.
    24. Sehrish Shahzad & Bushra Yasmin, 2016. "Does Fiscal Decentralisation Matter for Poverty and Income Inequality in Pakistan?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 781-802.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Inflation; Money Supply; QTM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N31 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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