IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/emffin/v17y2018i3p333-353.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Linkages Between the Foreign Exchange Markets of BRIC Countries—Brazil, Russia, India and China—and the USA

Author

Listed:
  • Ramya Rajajagadeesan Aroul
  • Peggy E. Swanson

Abstract

The past decade has witnessed increasing trade and capital flow movements between BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and the USA indicating a need for a better understanding of currency linkages between these countries. This article examines long-run and short-run relationships between foreign exchange markets of BRIC countries and the USA. Long-run results indicate that, over a period beginning January 2000 and ending November 2013, the currency markets of China, India and the USA are tied together, implying that from the perspective of the US investor, the markets of Brazil and Russia provide the greater diversification benefits. Further, the USA is found to be the source of the common trend (CT), suggesting that it leads the three (cointegrated) markets towards the long-run equilibrium relationships. Brazil and India share no short-run lead-lag relationship with the USA. JEL Classification: F31, G15

Suggested Citation

  • Ramya Rajajagadeesan Aroul & Peggy E. Swanson, 2018. "Linkages Between the Foreign Exchange Markets of BRIC Countries—Brazil, Russia, India and China—and the USA," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(3), pages 333-353, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emffin:v:17:y:2018:i:3:p:333-353
    DOI: 10.1177/0972652718800081
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0972652718800081
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0972652718800081?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patricia Fraser & Oluwatobi Oyefeso, 2005. "US, UK and European Stock Market Integration," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1-2), pages 161-181.
    2. Kam C. Chan & Benton E. Gup & Ming-Shiun Pan, 1997. "International Stock Market Efficiency and Integration: A Study of Eighteen Nations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(6), pages 803-813.
    3. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 737-745, June.
    4. Lajaunie, John P & McManis, Bruce L & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1996. "Further Evidence on Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency: An Application of Cointegration Tests," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 553-564, August.
    5. Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-1035, September.
    6. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
    7. Obstfeld,Maurice & Taylor,Alan M., 2005. "Global Capital Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671798, September.
    8. Jesus Gonzalo & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2000. "On the robustness of cointegration tests when series are fractionally intergrated," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(7), pages 821-827.
    9. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    10. Crowder, William J. & Wohar, Mark E., 1998. "Cointegration, forecasting and international stock prices," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 181-204.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    13. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    14. Phylaktis, Kate, 1999. "Capital market integration in the Pacific Basin region: an impulse response analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 267-287, February.
    15. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Tamat Sarmidi & Hui Boon Tan, 2003. "Dynamic Linkages Of Asian Stock Markets," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 180-209.
    16. Gerlach, Richard & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2006. "Structural breaks and diversification: The impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the integration of Asia-Pacific real estate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 974-991, October.
    17. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    18. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock market linkages in emerging markets: implications for international portfolio diversification," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 91-106, April.
    19. Patricia Fraser & Oluwatobi Oyefeso, 2005. "US, UK and European Stock Market Integration," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1‐2), pages 161-181, January.
    20. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    21. Bessler, David A. & Yang, Jian, 2003. "The structure of interdependence in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 261-287, April.
    22. Fujii, Eiji, 2005. "Intra and inter-regional causal linkages of emerging stock markets: evidence from Asia and Latin America in and out of crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 315-342, October.
    23. Diebold, Francis X & Gardeazabal, Javier & Yilmaz, Kamil, 1994. "On Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 727-735, June.
    24. Aloui, Riadh & Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane Ben & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Global financial crisis, extreme interdependences, and contagion effects: The role of economic structure?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 130-141, January.
    25. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    26. Jian Yang & Insik Min & Qi Li, 2003. "European Stock Market Integration: Does EMU Matter?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(9‐10), pages 1253-1276, December.
    27. Richard J. Sweeney, 2003. "Cointegration and Market Efficiency," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 2(1), pages 41-56, January.
    28. Christian L Dunis & Gary Shannon, 2005. "Emerging markets of South-East and Central Asia: Do they still offer a diversification benefit?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(3), pages 168-190, October.
    29. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    30. Zhou, Su, 2003. "Interest rate linkages within the European Monetary System: new evidence incorporating long-run trends," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 571-590, August.
    31. Mancuso, Anthony J. & Goodwin, Barry K. & Grennes, Thomas J., 2003. "Nonlinear aspects of capital market integration and real interest rate equalization," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 283-303.
    32. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    33. Goodwin, Barry K. & Grennes, Thomas J., 1994. "Real interest rate equalization and the integration of international financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 107-124, February.
    34. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    35. Sephton, Peter S. & Larsen, Hans K., 1991. "Tests of exchange market efficiency: fragile evidence from cointegration tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 561-570, December.
    36. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    37. Vo, Xuan Vinh & Daly, Kevin James, 2007. "The determinants of international financial integration," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 228-250.
    38. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    39. Jian Yang & Insik Min & Qi Li, 2003. "European Stock Market Integration: Does EMU Matter?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(9‐10), pages 1253-1276, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nafeesa Yunus, 2009. "Increasing Convergence Between U.S. and International Securitized Property Markets: Evidence Based on Cointegration Tests," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 383-411, September.
    2. Nafeesa Yunus & Peggy Swanson, 2007. "Modelling Linkages between US and Asia‐Pacific Securitized Property Markets," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 95-122.
    3. Kühl, Michael, 2010. "Bivariate cointegration of major exchange rates, cross-market efficiency and the introduction of the Euro," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    5. Yunus, Nafeesa, 2015. "Trends and convergence in global housing markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 100-112.
    6. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    7. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2009. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 13-30.
    8. Nafeesa Yunus & J. Hansz & Paul Kennedy, 2012. "Dynamic Interactions Between Private and Public Real Estate Markets: Some International Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 1021-1040, November.
    9. Phengpis, Chanwit, 2006. "Market efficiency and cointegration of spot exchange rates during periods of economic turmoil: Another look at European and Asian currency crises," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 323-342.
    10. repec:got:cegedp:68 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Nafeesa Yunus, 2023. "Co‐movement among oil, stock, bond, and housing markets: An analysis of U.S., Asian, and European economies," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 393-436, June.
    12. Syriopoulos, Theodore, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between emerging European and developed stock markets: Has the EMU any impact?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 41-60.
    13. Bley, Jorg, 2009. "European stock market integration: Fact or fiction?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 759-776, December.
    14. Syriopoulos, Theodore, 2006. "Risk and return implications from investing in emerging European stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-299, July.
    15. Phengpis, Chanwit & Apilado, Vince P., 2004. "Economic interdependence and common stochastic trends: A comparative analysis between EMU and non-EMU stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 245-263.
    16. repec:got:cegedp:76 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Choudhry, T., 1998. "Another visit to the Cagan model of money demand: the latest Russian experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 355-376, April.
    18. Michael KUEHL, 2008. "Strong Comovements of Exchange Rates: Theoretical and Empirical Cases when Currencies Become the Same Asset," EcoMod2008 23800071, EcoMod.
    19. Nafeesa Yunus, 2016. "Modelling interactions among the housing market and key US sectors," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 121-146, April.
    20. Barkoulas, John T. & Barilla, Anthony G. & Wells, William, 2016. "Long-memory exchange rate dynamics in the euro era," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 92-100.
    21. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Dynamic Stock Market Interactions between the Canadian, Mexican, and the United States Markets: The NAFTA Experience," Working papers 2008-49, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    22. Nafeesa Yunus, 2013. "Dynamic interactions among property types," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(2), pages 135-159, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    BRIC; portfolio diversification; cointegration; structural break; Granger causality; variance decomposition analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:emffin:v:17:y:2018:i:3:p:333-353. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ifmr.ac.in .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.